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[Solved] Toyota and Honda Owners switching to Tesla?

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Topic starter

Hey Scotty,

You constantly recommend Toyotas and Hondas to your viewers;  however, a recent report by SPGlobal has shown that amongst Tesla EV vehicles sold from October 2021 to September 2022 about 28.6% of the “conquest buyers” have come from Toyota and Honda combined.   Here is the breakdown of conquest buyers:

  • Toyota 15.3%
  • Honda 13.3%
  • BMW 6.7%
  • Mercedes 6.2%
  • Ford 5.4%
  • Lexus 5.3%
  • Chevrolet 4.7%
  • Audi 4.4%
  • Subaru 4.3%

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Scotty, why would such a large percentage of Toyota and Honda owners switch to Tesla?  Have they lost their mind?!

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Source: https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/new-ev-entries-nibbling-away-at-tesla-ev-share.html

14 Answers
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Topic starter

Here’s my theory: People, like me, initially gave into Toyota and Honda on the idea that the car would be reliable and not need much repairs under their ownership. Maintenance and total cost of ownership would be less than rivals.
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Then, when EVs (and Tesla being the poster child) came out a new message was spread about EVs being little-to-no maintenance, very few moving parts compared to ICE (and therefore less things to go wrong), and total cost of ownership that would be less than even a Toyota or Honda. I have seen comparisons showing cost of maintenance of Tesla Model 3 being less than a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.
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Anyways, misguided or not, I feel those Toyota/Honda owners migrated to Tesla because they felt the total cost of ownership would be less. Time will tell if their gamble paid off.

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Posted by: @daywalker

Scotty, why would such a large percentage of Toyota and Honda owners switch to Tesla?  Have they lost their mind?!

IF, a person is NOT going to keep it for over 5-8 years or 100,000 miles - why not?

Look, people who buy new luxury cars do not keep them for long.

According to studies, new car buyers care about:

  • Purchase Cost - A Tesla model 3 costs less than the average new car.
  • Fuel Economy - 25 kWh / 100 miles, that's $6 per 100 miles.
  • Performance - 5.80 seconds 0-60mph on the base model.
  • Safety - 96% on the Euroncap and an IIHS Safety Pick +.
  • Maintenance - No scheduled maintenance required at all.

So in those respects on paper it's great.

 

If you're in the minority that buys new cars and wants them to last for over 10 years (under 16% of Audi owners for example) - it is just not for you.

 

I have an EV, a Chinese built Geely Geometry C -

It's a car I got from work and now I get it, EVs are actually great to drive too.

It shares most parts and design with the Volvo EX30, a SUB-$35,000 EV WITHOUT the federal tax credit.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/2025-volvo-ex30-review-a3326209809/

(I'll probably post about it and other Chinese EVs in detail later, currently I'm still leanring)

 

But so far, I kinda get EV buyers - The charging turned out to be a non-issue even with a long highway commute, high temperatures, and a lack of a charging station in my house. Even with this car's pretty pathetic charging curves, just 10.5kwh on AC and 55kwh (200 miles of charge in an hour, at times I needed to top up, It usually only required just a 10-15 minute stop) on a DC fast charger.

This post was modified 2 weeks ago 5 times by Dan

Dan, you are going soft on me. EVs still have a long ways to go to be on par with ICE. You say 5 to 8 years and/or 100,000 miles but a lot can still go wrong with them in that timeframe especially since everything is all electric (of course).  The biggest stress to electronics is thermal cycling.  And a lot of automakers are not known for reliable electronics. 

The "5-8 year" timeframe was chosen carefully as Teslas have an 8 year drivetrain and battery warranty. Personally I would not even consider a Tesla out of warranty.
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Thermal cycling is less of an issue, unlike early EVs modern ones have decently advanced thermal management - I do not see drive unit electronic thermal management being an issue on modern EVs when it wasn't an issue for PHEVs like the Prius Plug-in.
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Yes, currently a Toyota Camry will outlive any EV.
Yet, Electronics and battery tech are definitely improving, Toyota (working with BYD) are warranting their $27k Toyota Bz3 electric compact sedan ("The Electric Corolla") to retain 90% in 10 years (on the BYD Blade battery, and an 8 year warranty on the Toyota Bz3's electric drivetrain - a BYD unit as-well)
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But the main trend we're seeing is how battery prices have gone down to $130 per kWh, so the battery of the $35,000 Volvo EX30's battery is around $8,000 and modern drive units are as cheep as $1,000 - all in all the powertrain is around 10 grand.
(Battery cost is from the Yahoo article linked bellow, powertrain cost is from what Tesla has unveiled https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-teases-less-expensive-next-gen-ev-motor-and-platform/)
Meanwhile, on a conventional car, the precisely manufactured gasoline engine with 8 injectors, the torque converted hydraulically controlled automatic transmission with 8 speeds, the rare earth metal catalytic convertors, flow rate, exhaust air-fuel ratio sensors, even the gas tank and its char coal canister, also aren't cheap at all - someday soon the powertrain costs will be the same.
(Also the Chinese have mastered cost cutting, they don't feel cheap but the usual expensive components like a gauge cluster, or complex dashboard shapes, are nowhere to be seen.)
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Currently, sub compact EVs are already beating their conventional counterparts on price,
The $10,900 - $14,200 USD BYD ATTO 1 (aka BYD Seagull) competing directly against the Yaris.
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/byd-atto-1-would-this-small-18k-electric-car-with-400km-of-range-work-in-australia-could-it (note the prices here are in AUD)
And it makes sense that they can undercut Toyota by that much, they have a ±$4,500 battery, a ±1,000 drive unit, this comes in as significantly less than what the Yaris' DynamicForce engine, Launch gear CVT, and Euro6d emissions system...
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Chinese EVs becoming too good is actually under probe by the EU as European car makers can not compete.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-assess-whether-hit-chinese-073435249.html
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In 2021, this tech finally feels mature.

A 2021 EV from a non legacy car maker is defiantly on par with at least a poorly built ICE.

My main concern is not the battery or drive unit warranty which is 8 years for most EVs. It’s the 4 year bumper to bumper warranty. Modern vehicles including EVs has lots of computer modules on board, with solder joints and what not. My concern is how those electronic modules (and the circuit boards inside) hold up over time. They all face some thermal cycling and the Chinese historically have sucked when it comes to personal electronics. These EVs are essentially smart phones or computers on wheels, and the last thing I would want to buy is a Chinese designed and made vehicle. None of the electronics I own that are made in China have lasted long.  Talk about disposable rubbish.

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You talk about the Prius hybrid not having much issues, well that’s a Toyota product.  Of course, they are going to hold up.

Not to mention that EVs are totally unacceptable for the huge number of people buying used cars 10, 15, even 20 years old.

I would also argue the Chinese are dumping their vehicles in markets to gain market share even though they are losing money on them. It’s a strategy the Japanese used here in the United States back in the 80s/90’s to gain market share. It’s illegal. Right now only BYD and Tesla are making a profit on each EV they sell; everyone else is losing money.

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If the European Union wants to protect their auto industry, they need to have huge tariffs.  You can bet here in the United States we won’t be letting the Chinese (and the Communist Party) have their way here.

The components related to the EV powertrain are thermally managed,
and the rest are often the often exact same ones that you'd find on a western ICE.
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I do not see most EVs and my Geely being an "iPhone on wheels", as far as tech, they're no different than a 10 year old European car or a modern Japanese one.
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And as fas as repairability of computer modules and non powertrain related items they exceed western automakers.
For example, Geely seems to be open to the idea of DIY repair, and they publish all of the technical information for their EVs feely.
Geely Geometry wiring: https://geelyprdstorageac.blob.core.windows.net/public/articles/Geometry%20C%20Wiring%20Diagram.pdf
Geely Geometry circuit diagram:
https://geelyprdstorageac.blob.core.windows.net/public/NEW%20GEOMETRY%20C/FILES/Circuit%20diagram%20NC.pdf
Geely Geometry workshop manual:
https://geelyprdstorageac.blob.core.windows.net/public/articles/Geometry%20C%20Workshop%20Manual.pdf
This 3,000 page document is the best repair manual I have ever seen, it's super clear, well illustrated, and helps the technician pinpoint the exact issue instead of firing the parts canon.
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Quite honestly, Chinese cars have been around for a while, the "body electrical systems" seem to be as reliable as they get. The only modern cars I've seen that have horrible electronics and computers were all built by Ford and VW.
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Recently I've seen a video in which a poor quality Ford tail lamp lens caused almost $6,000 in damage because of Ford's awful engineering.

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> "None of the electronics I own that are made in China have lasted long"
Your computer and phone are made in china, my iPhone and MacBook are.
The Chinese can build long lasting products if they want to, it's just a question of price.

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@ChuckTobias , I don't see how EVs are unacceptable cause some people buy cars that are 2 times older than the average lifespan of a car...

With how cheap some smaller budget EVs are, BYD ATTO1 for example, a 9-10 year old ATTO 1 will probably costs almost nothing.
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@daywalker
You can read in the Yahoo article about how the Chinese have significantly lower costs than European car makers. The same reason we don't see American made smartphones, or European made home appliances.
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In the case of Geely the cost savings are super obvious, they removed the conventional gauge cluster placing a 5 inch screen instead (that's $100-$250 saved), it sits atop of a flat dashboard (dashboard molding is expensive!), There's no gear shift lever (it's all electronic on all modern cars so why make what is an expensive joystick), and the list goes on and on, they have really managed to perform insane cost cuttings (without affecting the ride quality or interior)
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I do not think what you're suggesting, initiating a trade war with china, is a good idea, GM would probably collapse - they have 10 joint ventures, 58,000 employees in China, and source tons of components from there.

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Besides, STELLANTIS is also launching budget EVs - they're not worse than the Chinese, just a little bit more old school.
It's just the very old legacy car makers that are struggling to adjust to having competition, similarly to LG mobile collapsing after receiving competition from Chinese brands like Xiaomi.

Good for Geely they are open to DIY. I wish Tesla and others would do that. Anyways, I am committed to ICE (mainly Toyota) for the next 20+ years. At that point, if I am still alive, we will see which vehicle I get next. Who knows what cars will be like then.
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As for my computer and phone being in China, that is true but then again they are disposable. They usually don’t last more than 5 years for me.
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I have yet to see a Chinese product that will last a long time.
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Plus, supporting China by buying their products is only strengthening the Chinese Communist Party and their global ambitions. It would be dangerous if we become too reliant on their products. Unfortunately, lots of companies have sold out.
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There will be conflict with China in the future and it will come back to bite all of us.

@dan, I seriously doubt any new electric car, even the cheapo Chinese ones, will be available for just several thousand dollars. Any even approaching that price would have to be little more than tin cans with electric motors. I'm currently driving a 1997 model bought in 2011 for $1500, and while prices on used cars have gone up there are still deals to be had out there for decent older vehicles. No sale for EVs here.

It's true that it strengthens the CPP, yet I'm just sick and tired of the incompetence, and pure audacity of legacy car makers.
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Recently legacy car makers have been crossing too many red lines...
Not only are they engineered to fail, they can't even supply the parts needed for repair.
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The biggest example of legacy car makers doing insane stuff is Nissan collecting information that's flat out inappropriate (see under "What could happen if something goes wrong" it's in bold)
https://foundation.mozilla.org/en/privacynotincluded/nissan/
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I think that them having to deal and compete with lean cost optimized, sometimes even startup companies (like AiWays) is to the benefit of us all.
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And as far as Chinese made products not lasting long it's all planned obscene.
Some products are built different, I have quite a few products made in China that are solid (like my LG Fridge, 15 year old ThinkPad I don't use anymore, old Sony TV, and quite a few others)
If they want, they can make products that last forever.
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I wouldn't commit to ICE or EV, or any brand in particular, things change - just get whatever's the best option based on the available information at time of purchase.

I live in a reality known as the United States. We have what we have here. We don’t have BYD, Greeley, or any Chinese startup company EVs here. We probably never will.
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Right now, Toyota is the best we got here.

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Besides, EVs may just be another fad here and peter out.  EVs are not exactly catching like wildfire here except for maybe in the liberal states.

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The reason why the Chinese may have improved in their manufacturing is because all legacy automakers wanting to do build vehicles and do business in China were forced to team up with a Chinese car company “partner”.   50/50 partnership courtesy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Imagine how much they learned and how much information was stolen.  Now, they are stabbing the legacy automakers in the back and eating their lunch. 
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I will never buy a CCP car here in the United States.

The US car market is hard to enter (that's why there aren't any Peugeot, Citroen, Škodas, etc.), but the Chinese are planing on eventually entering it.
I think that will probably first happen via existing well known brand like Volvo (owned by Geely),
And by cars that are rebadged Chinese cars (for example the Toyota Bz3 is pretty much just a BYD but it's unclear if they'll market it in the US)
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BYD has entered my local market in September 2022, in Q1 2023 they already became the best selling car today they're outselling their nearest competitor (of any fuel type) almost 2:1.
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Similarly Chinese MG (owned by SAIC) has now overtaken Mazda in Europe by sales,
Both MG branded EVs and Chinese built Volvo brand EVs are very strong in Sweden (EVs are 40% of the market there as of July, https://cleantechnica.com/2023/06/03/sweden-hits-62-plugin-ev-market-share-in-may-tesla-model-y-high/)
and in the UK MG is a best seller, their HS (petrol midsize) SUV has been a best seller on that market and their MG4 (compact EV crossover) is the second best-selling electric car of 2023 in the UK.
https://www.mg.co.uk/media-centre/mg-hs-named-uks-best-selling-car-january
As it seems in a few years, unless European commission intervenes, Chinese car makers may dominate Europe.
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If I had to guess, I'd say it will take another 4-5 years before they storm the US market,
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With states like California, Colorado, and Vermont and others ( https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/states-banning-new-gas-powered-cars/) banning new ICE cars, some early as just 6.5 years away, - I can definitely see MG, Geely, and BYD sweeping in and filling the void (cheap EV crossovers) that Ford, GM , Tesla and others have so far been unable to fulfill.
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I also expect Stellantis to begin marketing PSA e-CMP platform cars in the US, as it seems under the Chrysler and dodge...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/chrysler-kicks-off-plans-to-go-all-electric-by-2028-with-airflow-concept.html

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As far as stolen tech, yea they have initially went the same way as the Japanese and later Koreans have - but later they just began opening R&D centers in Europe, collaborating with legacy car makers and it has went well.

In the case of the Geely Geometry, they make it no secret that to create it they tasked Volvo engineers with electrifying and improving the existing petrol powered Geely Emguard GS 

And that the platform for future mass market Geely cars was developed by "China Euro Vehicle Technology" which used Ford technology they purchased, and Mats Fägerhag, the former head of SAAB.

Furthermore, their new premium car platform "is open to supply the platform to other automakers." - which seems to be true as Daimler will use it for Smart cars and Lotus will use it too, so at this point it doesn't seem like they're relaying on legacy companies' tech, they're selling technology to legacy companies...

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After I got the Geely (it wasn't my choice to get one, my workplace is electrifying) I began really looking into them and I'm pleasantly surprised - so far it seems like they've done an excellent job.

"Right now only BYD and Tesla are making a profit on each EV they sell; everyone else is losing money"
Well, these are publicly traded companies, they publish their reports:
- Geely are incredibly proffitable
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/geely-earnings-2022-profit-surges-company-touts-ev-sales.html
- SAIC (MG) are making good profits: https://www.saicmotor.com/english/images/investor_relations/annual_report/2023/7/28/173DD77A3A8546FAA9DB26C269E7754B.pdf

- GAC, the world’s 3rd largest EV maker by sales have reported a profit (notably they made their first GAC branded car just 13 years ago, it was based on an Alfa Romeo…)

https://www.marketscreener.com/amp/quote/stock/GUANGZHOU-AUTOMOBILE-GROU-6699755/news/GAC-Sees-13-Jump-in-2022-Profit-on-Strong-Sales-42635535/

- Nio have reported a CN¥−15.641 billion loss, but they still have positive equity and they attribute it to their acquisitions and new ventures. But they always had a shaky and odd financial history... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/nio-ev-china-startup-investment-future/
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Btw, researching that, I found that Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi have parterenred with Geely to develop EV tech.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/renault-geely-ink-pact-with-aramco-for-engine-venture.html
Which does make sense, Renault-Nissan used to be pioneers (with the Nissan Leaf, and Renault Fluence Z.E and ZOE) in the field but they have really fallen behind.

“I think that will probably first happen via existing well known brand like Volvo (owned by Geely), And by cars that are rebadged Chinese cars (for example the Toyota Bz3 is pretty much just a BYD but it's unclear if they'll market it in the US)“
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Here in the US, Volvo is not thought highly of. Their sales pale in comparison to their competitors.
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As for rebadged Chinese car under Toyota nameplate, Toyota has other EVs here in the US but no one is buying them. I doubt they will make a dent with a Chinese rebadged one, especially if it ends up having issues.
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“If I had to guess, I'd say it will take another 4-5 years before they storm the US market,“
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I doubt it. Tesla has the biggest market share here in the States and even they are plateauing. There are cheaper offerings already like GM Bolt, vehicles from Hyundai/Kia, Volvo, but no one is buying them. As Scotty has been saying, EV adoption here in the States is poor.
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“I can definitely see MG, Geely, and BYD sweeping in and filling the void (cheap EV crossovers) that Ford, GM , Tesla and others have so far been unable to fulfill.”
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Yeah, good luck with that. It will have to be rebadged using a nameplate Americans are already familiar with. Otherwise, Americans will view it as Chinese POS whether or not the perfection is truly warranted.  I think the legacy auto will step up.  The key is to build at scale and streamline the parts list as possible.  Tesla has the highest profit per car of any automaker (ICE or EV) and Toyota is now copying their playbook.
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One final point: No EV maker except for BYD and Tesla is making a profit on each EV they sell. Everyone else is losing money, and I suspect they are entering a price war with their competitors just to grab market share all while losing money in the process. A lot of the upstarts won’t survive. It’s clear Tesla and BYD will survive.

I don’t trust any numbers coming out of China or from the Chinese automakers. They lie.  They spread COVID across the world.

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It’s also in the United States national security interest to not allow Chinese companies in our market.  There will be a future standoff with China and it’s going to be bad for us to be dependent on them so much.  We don’t want Chinese cars spying on us and giving that information to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Just look at TikTok - what a scam that company is working for the CCP to collect information on us.

@daywalker
> They usually don’t last more than 5 years for me. I have yet to see a Chinese product that will last a long time.
Weird! I still have all my old phones going back to about 2007. Aside from the batteries, they still work. Not one failed.

@daywalker
> using a nameplate Americans are already familiar with. Otherwise, Americans will view it as Chinese POS
Americans accepted Korean cars pretty quickly. Kia/Hyundai have risen to #5 in the USA

and remember that at first there was resistance to Japanese cars too

"...at first there was resistance to Japanese cars too"

 

At least one of the reasons for that is when Japanese cars started getting a toehold most middle-aged adults had been involved in the war. It was the 1970s gas crisis that helped overcome that resistance.

 

That 70s show - Red Forman comments on his buying a Toyota Corolla

 

 

> "Their sales pale in comparison to their competitors"
Volvo has the same sales numbers as Acura (2022).
They're definitely a strong brand, no one reacts to a Volvo negatively.

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> "Toyota has other EVs here in the US but no one is buying them"
The Bz4x is a horrible car,
not even close to an Atto 3 and that's the EXACT reason why Toyota has partnered with BYD.
All future Toyotas will use BYD technology for their batteries.
https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/32126024.html
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> "cheaper offerings already like GM Bolt, vehicles from Hyundai/Kia (...)"
No one bought them here either, and not one buys them here either.
Legacy car maker's reasonably priced EVs are a bit of a joke.

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> "EV adoption here in the States is poor"
Trust me, people in the 9 states who're banning ICE vehicles will adopt EVs.
The rest will follow eventually, at this point large-scale EV adaptation is a given.
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> "Americans will view it as Chinese POS"
As mmj said, the Japanese and the Koreans had to deal with the same issues.
But mainly Geely has overcame there here very fast.

I'm with mmj and chuck on this one - I'm sure that brand nationality won't be much of an issue.
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> "One final point: No EV maker except for BYD and Tesla is making a profit"
That's not the case. Look at the comment above yours (from 2:11 am) I have shown how EV makers are profitable. Currently most legacy car makers are not capable of profiting of production of new technology vehicles.
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Also adding to that some legacy car makers have achieved EV profitability.

Hyundai-Kias EV operation is profitable, currently they're making single digit profit (which is standard for the industry) and they have announced a plan for double digit profit margins for their new generation EVs. I can definitely see that happening.
https://electrek.co/2023/06/20/hyundai-plans-double-digit-profit-margins-via-new-ev-platform/

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VW has and they're expecting to have the same profit margins on the I.D as they have on ICE cars.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/vw-expects-ev-profit-margin-parity-ices-2025

And VW is on the right path, they decided to compete against the Chinese head-on with the VW ID. 2all, a cheap ±$25,000 compact EV launching in 2025, it will compete directly against the BYD Dolphin.

https://www.carwow.co.uk/byd/news/6860/new-byd-dolphin-price-specs

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According to a 2022 article:
"The electric carmaking operations of Toyota, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Volvo, BMW and Mercedes-Benz will rapidly become more profitable than their traditional petrol and diesel counterparts within the next three to five years"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/01/traditional-carmakers-could-boost-profits-by-accelerating-move-to-electric

“Volvo has the same sales numbers as Acura (2022).
They're definitely a strong brand, no one reacts to a Volvo negatively.”
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Check out this link showing sales by brand in the US:
https://www.carpro.com/blog/full-year-2022-national-auto-sales-by-brand?hs_amp=true
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Volvo is ranked number 23 (Acura is number 22). Volvo is not highly sought after nor bought much here in the US. In California where most people drive imports I rarely if ever see a Volvo on the road. People just don’t care for Volvo here.
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“No one bought them here either, and not one buys them here either.
Legacy car maker's reasonably priced EVs are a bit of a joke.”
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Actually, the Chevy Bolt is reasoanably priced and is very popular at least in California. I see a lot of them in California after Teslas.
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The articles you cited about future profitability of those automakers (Hyundai, VW) - those are just predictions. Companies can make a lot of bold claims to satisfy investors but they usually don’t end up delivering. GM and Ford and even Toyota have been promising certain number of EVs to be sold by now (or in Toyota’s case they been promising solid state batteries for at least 6 years) and so far those predictions have yet to materialize. Until it happens, it’s all claims.
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As for profitability, I follow the Electric Viking on his YouTube Channel: he is an analyst produces 6 or so videos a day talking about EVs mainly and he has repeatedly said and shown that only two automakers are profitable (per EV sold) thus far in their EV endeavors, BYD and Tesla. Again, looking at per EV sold, with Tesla bringing in more profits per vehicle than BYD.
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“Trust me, people in the 9 states who're banning ICE vehicles will adopt EVs.
The rest will follow eventually, at this point large-scale EV adaptation is a given.“
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I doubt majority of people will give into EVs even in those states. They will vote with their feet like Chuck said or like me who live in California I will refuse to just buy EV.
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Buying hybrid makes way more sense than buying EV, and it’s more likely those people will just buy a hybrid over an EV.
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Also, a lot of Red States with conservatives are anti-EV and anti-China, rightfully so.   Chinese made POS EVs being sold here in the US:  that will be a much tougher feat than in liberal Europe.  Also, those 9 states wanting to ban EV - that’s unconstitutional and I am sure will be sued in court.
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Once the Republicans control the Presidency, along with the Senate and House, they will slow down EV adoption and eliminate mandates for EVs.  They will go after those 9 states and strip them of their ability to make new ICE illegal after 2035.  The American public should be allowed to make a choice what new car they want to drive. Government should not be forcing it down their throats.

@daywalker
> "Americans will view it as Chinese POS"
One thing I know. Americans LOVE Chinese crap. It comes in by the shiploads and Walmart shelves are filled with it. I don't think they care where it comes from. People just love cheap stuff.
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> Actually, the Chevy Bolt is reasonably priced
Dream on. Out the door it's still going to be a $50k car, and then you still have to buy and install your charger.
When the battery fails (assuming it doesn't burn down your house. biggest battery recalls of all EV makes) it's going to cost a Corolla to replace it.

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> I doubt majority of people will give into EVs even in those states
The majority of people are Biden voters who swallow all the doomsday environmental crap and ban drinking straws. Of course they'll snatch up cheap Chinese EV cars.

@imperator
You can order a new Chevrolet Bolt for around $30,000 here in the US. And that’s before the $7,500 credit plus additional incentives instates (which could easily be another $2,500). Unfortunately, I don’t quality for any incentives but still for me it would be $30,000. The options would be light but less things to go wrong.
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Even in California which has the most EVs and initially had the fastest EV adoption, but now years later the rate of EV adoption has slowed to a crawl. They are supposedly hitting a plateau here. Could be many reasons for that, but point being the growth rate has slowed.
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There are still a lot of people who are not convinced of EVs and I still see a lot of new vehicle purchases mainly ICE.
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The liberals will have no issues with a Chinese-made EV but there are more conservatives and moderates than you think in the country as a whole. It’s one thing when almost all consumer electronics and goods are made in China and you can’t avoid that, but when it comes to cars we still have a choice to buy a vehicle made in different countries.
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I expect future Republican administrations to be tough on China and make it harder for those Communist car companies to do business in the US.

@daywalker
theoretical prices. We all know what dealers are like.

@imperator you can still get MSRP at dealerships, you have to maybe spend more time looking for those dealerships but the days of dealer markups are ending.  If someone is willing to wait for their vehicle to be built they can get for MSRP.  Granted we have a UAW strike and that’s a new curveball, but I know people personally who bought their Bolt EV months ago here in California for less than $30,000. It can be done.

well good. they should ease up the pricing after all the recalls they had. I still wouldn't buy one.

I wouldn’t buy one either, but my point with all this to Dan is there is some attempt at making “affordable” EVs for the masses by legacy auto, and with competition and with a market for cheaper EVs hopefully more traditional/legacy automakers will step up. Especially with the threat of Chinese Communist car companies coming ashore.

The prices will have to go down, with new taxes coming in some states, and didn't California impose restrictions on charging too?

Restrictions on charging? Honestly, I have no idea.

> "Check out this link showing sales by brand in the US"
Yeah I can clearly see that Volvo is performing well as a chic luxury brand, within 1.8x-2.5x of the largest players on the luxury car market.
With enough resources, which Geely has, they can lift it to new heights.
Currently Geely's plan to enter Western Europe relays on launching semi-luxury brands like Polestar, and Zeekr and by making more accessible Volvo models.
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> "the Chevy Bolt"
The Chevy Bolt is no competitor to an ATTO or a Geometry.
The Nissan Leaf is also very affordable, sometimes under 28 grand - still compared to a Dolpyin or a MG4 it's not even close.
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> "As for profitability"
You can read between the lines and see how Stellantis for example arttibutes their increased profitability due to increased EV sales, it's no secret that they're currently not AS profitable - but they are somewhat profitable even for legacy companies.
I do not know who on YouTube you're watching but considering how many EV only companies there are their profits he's definitely wrong - what about insanely profitable GAC? and companies where most of their products are electric?
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> "They will vote with their feet (...) I doubt majority of people will give into EVs (...) I will refuse to just buy EV"
Almost no one will move states because they have to buy a different kind of car, and don't you worry they'll make you the same way it happened in Europe.
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I agree with mmj on the west's love of cheep Chinese goods,
And as far as GM's handling of the fault LG batteries I agree it's laughable they began refusing replacement of faulty batteries - this is that incompetence and audacity people are sick of with legacy car makers.
https://electrek.co/2023/06/14/bolt-battery-recall-diagnostics/
And c'mon the bolt is just crappy, like all "budget" GM products - charging peak speed is only 55kw? Torsion beam rear suspension on what is a heavy lifted super mini?
Compared to a Trax or a TrailBlazer it's brilliant but c'mon it's depressing that this is the best GM can do.

Again, the US versus European markets: totally different.
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……..
“With enough resources, which Geely has, they can lift it to new heights.
Currently Geely's plan to enter Western Europe relays on launching semi-luxury brands like Polestar, and Zeekr and by making more accessible Volvo models.”
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That strategy may work in Europe but not in the US. This is a much tougher market to crack. Perceptions of Volvo and their subsidiaries are not great in the US.
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……
The EVs I mentioned were just examples we have here in the US. You keep comparing to EVs elsewhere in the world, but I live in the US and we don’t have those other models (and probably never will).
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Anyways Bolt and Leaf’s are relatively cheaper EVs we have right now in the US, and I am sure more will follow. I personally would not buy one but I have seen many Bolts on the road here in California after Teslas.
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……..
“Almost no one will move states because they have to buy a different kind of car, and don't you worry they'll make you the same way it happened in Europe.”
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You would be surprised. Lots of people are leaving California for freer states. This will be one more reason for them to leave.
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Good luck with getting Red, conservative states (and there’s many of them) on board with EVs. ICE for life, even if it means used. And if one has to go electrified, then hybrids are the way to go.
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If Republicans can control the House, Senate, and Presidency, which they have a good chance in 2024 and beyond then policies will be more anti-Green/anti-EV and slow the EV bandwagon train down.

one can hope

>Posted by: @daywalker
>Restrictions on charging? Honestly, I have no idea.

Yes. It was all over the news. Scotty made mocking videos about it.
I guess when it gets hot everyone turns their home AC and the grid starts to suffer

2

@daywalker "Have they lost their mind?"

I haven't lost my mind. I'll put my almost 20-year-old Toyota Avalon up against a 20-year-old Tesla any day of the week and twice on Sunday! Wink  

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Posted by: @daywalker

When they bought their Toyota and Honda products, they were smart.

You give people way too much credit. They weren't buying Toyotas because they're reliable. That rarely enters the equation.

Toyotas were trendy and now Teslas are trendy. They have that sexy futuristic appeal.

Plus it gives them a reason to look down their noses at people, and lets face it Japanese car owners can be a bit like that too.

How were/are Toyotas trendy? They are generally ugly, boring, and lacking in technology compared to their peers. It’s been like that for a while.
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Anyone that buys one is buying it for perceived reliability and a Point A to Point B vehicle without all the unreliable fuss other automakers have.

Also, that still does not explain why a larger percentage of Toyota/Honda owners switched to Tesla versus, say, German car owners. I would think German cars would be considered more trendy than Japanese.  And I thought German car owners were ones to look down others.

I mean just listen to the Tacoma fanboys on the various Toyota forums. It's like their sacred cow.
I don't know! I'm just spitballing. I don't understand people. I stop trying a long time ago. LoL

Here’s my theory: People, like me, initially gave into Toyota and Honda on the idea that the car would be reliable and not need much repairs under their ownership. Maintenance and total cost of ownership would be less than rivals.
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Then, when EVs (and Tesla being the poster child) came out a new message was spread about EVs being little-to-no maintenance, very few moving parts compared to ICE (and therefore less things to go wrong), and total cost of ownership that would be less than even a Toyota or Honda. I have seen comparisons showing cost of maintenance of Tesla Model 3 being less than a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.
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Anyways, misguided or not, I feel those Toyota/Honda owners migrated to Tesla because they felt the total cost of ownership would be less. Time will tell if their gamble paid off.

That's definitely a factor. I had a coworker raving about how much money he was gonna save if he got an electric pickup truck hahaha

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Tesla is the “it” car. Whether I like it or not. That “it” factor drives sales more than any notions of reliability. 

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Topic starter

Yes, good majority of foreigners living in the US drive Honda & Toyota

I think anyone that values their money will also buy a Toyota or Honda.

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Posted by: @dan

Trust me, people in the 9 states who're banning ICE vehicles will adopt EVs.

People in those states have the option of voting with their feet to more reasonable states, which is already happening due to other issues - those bans will just add another reason to leave. People can also stick with the vast existing installed base of gasoline-powered cars which are not going anywhere any time soon. Given the many disadvantages of electric vehicles the value of used conventional cars may well start going up in those states.

Posted by: @dan

The rest will follow eventually, at this point large-scale EV adaptation is a given.

Not necessarily for quite some time. I for one will never own an electric car, period. I am not the only one taking that stance. There is strong resistance by those of us who understand that this is a forced change with little if any benefit and huge drawbacks. (Scotty and others have done a good job of detailing those.) Being about Scotty's age I certainly will not live to see gasoline power eliminated and will stick with ICE until the end. (I may not be able to stop the madness but don't have to participate in it.)

The suggestion that people will stop their lives, quit their jobs, run over to their car and move across states, because "instead of a $27,700 Corolla Cross XLE those MONSTERS made me buy a $26,500 Chevy Bolt LT!" sounds ridiculous to me.
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People like to act like EVs are the plague, in reality they're not worse than a petrol car by any metric.
I do not have a charger at home, I never had to wait for my car to charge - its a non issue.

@Dan,
I live in California so I know this.  But California continues to lose people. Many reasons exist for that but forcing new vehicles to be EVs only after 2035 will be yet another reason they move out.
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EVs still have many shortcomings compared to ICE and hybrids. For all the places I travel, which is mainly rural, EVs will not cut it. Even on road trips who wants to wait 30 minutes to an hour to charge up?!  Meanwhile, It takes me 5 minutes to fuel up with gas.
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If I ever wanted to go ekectrified for some reason, I’d just get a Toyota hybrid and call it a day.
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In the end, people should have a choice what car they want and what car propulsion to go with (ICE, hybrid, hydrogen, EV).
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Even Scotty calls EVs a fad and not a settled propulsion yet. EVs are not for everyone, and that’s fine.

I think Dan is addressing mainly the nine-to-fivers, and for many of them charging isn't an issue. They plug it in at work and then they plug it in at home. That's a significant portion of the population. Obviously, a BEV isn't the best road trip car.
However I do have an anecdote about that. I have a coworker who bought a BEV (can't remember the model, sorry). He bought his own high power charger which he installs wherever he works. It's 3-phase, but he's a welder/fabricator so that's always available. That takes care of his to-and-from work needs. But his long term home is rural. So every few weeks he drives to his home 500mi away in the mountains. Charging didn't seem to be an issue. He seemed happy with his purchase and had mostly good things to say. The round trip would normally cost about $400 in fuel.

EV technology is moving insanely fast the past 3 years, for example an IONIQ6 charges fast 250 miles in 15 minutes - in the case you run out of the 380 mile range.

It's possible to drive a 630 mile roadtrip with just 15 minutes spent on charging.
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The IONIQ6 is cutting edge, the rest will catch up soon.
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Currently an average Tesla model 3 does about 175 miles in 15 minutes,

(so to go over 500 miles in a roadtrip during it you'll only need 15 minutes of charging)

but they're also improving fast, and given how Tesla did sell some cars with rather small 54kwh batteries in large sedans I see where the stigma came from.
Although If I had to guess the stigma dates even earlier to ±2013 when a Nissan leaf would only charge 30 miles in 15 minutes...
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What you have described was the case until 2021, charging speed has evolved drastically.
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Look at a map of chargers in California (the more I zoom in the more the map loads!) - I can not find an area without a lack of fast chargers in cali.
Except for the heart of Serria national park but I'm guessing it's not an era people would typically drive in.

And Tesla superchargers will soon (in some areas already, in the US it's slated for early 2024) accept all other car brands.
GM and Ford even will ship their cars with use Tesla style charge (NACS) ports instead of the industry standard (CCS-2) starting 2025.

@dan, As Scotty has stated that is spit in the bucket. Millions of charging stations would be required, as well as the electricity to feed them. The whole thing is a massive boondoggle. EV technology is distinctly inferior to gasoline and diesel.

I don’t deal with hypotheticals or theoreticala: you described hypothetical charging speeds but what about real-world time to charge.
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I’m sorry it still takes much longer to charge an EV (and that’s just to 80%) than it does an ICE car, and with ICE I can charge to 100%.
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EVs still have ways to go before they can beat and surpass ICE in every respect. EVs are also much more sensitive to range changes (due to terrain, temperatures, say I turn the AC ON, etc. )
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I will never buy an EV, not right now, not for my needs. If you want to jump on the liberal-fed Green Bandwagon, that’s on you. I live in reality.
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Even Scotty is not onboard with EV vehicles.

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Again, if someone wants to go electrified buy a hybrid.  That makes way more sense.  
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But, end of the day, let the market decide.  There should be options, not forced down our throats.

it's faster to fuel up, but it also empties your wallet faster. 15 minutes isn't terrible
Dan says he actually owns and drives an EV vehicle. How does that make what he says "hypothetical"?

@chucktobias
It's the free market, as there's more demand for charging stations more will be built.
Eventually the US government will step into the 21st century and will let private companies build and own electricity production facilities, again free markets will solve this issue.
- In what way is an inexpensive compact EV inferior to a petrol car?
@daywalker
These are the real world charging speeds, same with range.
(so far both EVs I tried, and the EV I own perform or outperform specifications)
I do not get the opposition to EVs, "liberal-fed Green Bandwagon" is not an argument against what is just a great car?

@dan, it's not the "free market" when government demands that the sale of gasoline powered cars cease. This is not the free market at work, government has distorted the market at every step and continues to do so. In a truly free market government would stay out of the question of gasoline vs. electric and let consumers decide for themselves.


An inexpensive compact EV is inferior to its gasoline equivalent in nearly every practical aspect. And in terms of longevity a Chevy Bolt will very likely be rotting in the junkyard as soon as the battery pack gives out (if not before) while a gasoline-powered Corolla Cross continues on for decades.

Try charging up to 375 miles of range in under 5 minutes, and then we will talk.   Also, if I want an EV that can do close to that range in the US Id have to buy a Model S with comes with 405 mile range and that is >$73,000 US dollars.
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When I drive to the trailheads in the mountains (which is sometimes about 500-600 miles from my house) I only need to stop one time to refuel along the way and it only takes less than 5 minutes to fuel up.
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The opposition to EVs is that they cannot do all the things ICE can do right now. Towing, charging speeds, range, serviceability, infrastructure are all not there.
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What is the opposition to hybrids? You keep saying EVs are great, but I’d say hybrids resolve a lot of those issues I cited. If someone wants to go electrified today, a Toyota hybrid is the way to go.
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I use my vehicle to do everything and so for me it doesn’t make any sense to buy and own an EV.
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And right now resale values of EVs are dismal.

It’s hypothetical because EVs fall woefully short of their EPA range and real-world charting speeds are slower than manufacturers claim.
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I don’t want to charge an EV for 15 minutes when I can refuel with gas in under 5 minutes. Those 10 minutes matter to me!  And if I need to go on trips with an EV, I won’t spend 15 minutes charging - more like 30+ minutes to get to 80% range.  You’d be a fool not to at least be at 80% range.   I know the places I go and I’d want to charge to at least 80% before setting off again.

@daywalker, 375 miles in under 5 minutes is nothing. A Nash "600" could fill up in under 5 minutes and travel 500-600 miles on that tank over 80 years ago.


The resale value of EVs is dismal largely because no one in their right mind would want to buy an electric car with an out-of-warranty battery. As a used car buyer myself I wouldn't go anywhere near one.

gasoline powered cars are still perfectly legal.
The only market manipulation currently in place would be the rebates and "carbon" taxes. I'm sure they account for some but not all of the increase in sales.

New Gasoline powered vehicles are to be banned in California and other liberal states after 2035. That’s overreach and quite frankly unconstitutional. I hope the Republican administration will go after those states once they come to power.

>"When I drive to the trailheads in the mountains..."
I think those are completely unrealistic expectations to have. EVs are not wilderness vehicles and they may never be a substitute for whatever you use now. They are clearly aimed for use within settled areas.

>"Try charging up to 375 miles of range in under 5 minutes, and then we will talk"
I'm willing to take a pee and snack break for 15 minutes if it means I'll save hundreds of dollars.

And it goes back to why I don’t own an EV, and why EVs are still inferior to ICE for the time being. The technology has ways to go to catch up.
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Forget about the mountains. Even if I wanted to go from San Diego to San Francisco I don’t care to stop and charge 30+ minutes (or even 15 minutes that Dan claims).
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I am used to fueling up in less than 5 minutes or less so why would I want to go backwards?
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Let’s work on improving EV real-world range for an affordable price and getting charging to under 5 minutes.
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As you know I am in the market for a new car and right now no EV can beat the Lexus ES350.

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While you may save on charging an EV vs. gas (for now until the Electric utilities wisen up), you’d pay in the longer run with higher insurance rates and repair costs.  Good luck also owning an EV out of warranty.  Whose going to work on it?

@imperator, the tax credits definitely have been an influence. Friends of mine bought an electric Mini specifically for that credit - otherwise they would have bought a Corolla or Civic. I've driven the thing and actually like it quite a bit, it's kind of like having a go-kart you can drive on the street - every kid's dream back in the day. Perfect for just zipping around town if that's all you need. It probably won't last very long but there's no denying it's a lot of fun.

>"The opposition to EVs is that they cannot do all the things ICE can do right now"
if all you do is drive to and from work every day and the supermarket on the weekends, then yeah, it will.
Obviously this isn't you. We get that. But for most people out there ....

>"a gasoline-powered Corolla Cross continues on for decades."
a MODERN Corolla? I'm not so sure about that. They're melting in the sun.
I think that lifespan gap is going to close up pretty quickly.

Again, while you may save on charging an EV vs. gas (for now until the Electric utilities wisen up), you’d pay in the longer run with higher insurance rates and repair costs. Good luck also owning an EV out of warranty. Whose going to work on it?

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Anyways, let the market decide.  People are people.  We tell them not to buy GM, Ford, FCA, VW, German products but they buy anyways.  That’s their free will and choice.  Let it be the same with vehicle propulsion technology whether it’s ICe, hybrid, EV, whatever.

We don't know yet about lifespan of modern Corollas obviously but the line has a great reputation going back a very long time. The plastic melting issue is a ridiculous lapse on Toyota's part but is cosmetic. When I look to buy an old car I really don't care about that kind of thing, in fact cosmetic defects mean it will sell for less money.

Life is a gamble. If I am buying a new vehicle today I’d still take a chance on Toyota/Lexus products versus any EV currently sold in the US.

If one is so gung-ho about EVs, then next time a member asks “Which car to get?” go ahead and say EV. But you probably wouldn’t dare say that, at least not yet. Why not? The typical recommendation has still been Toyota//Hondas. There must be some shortcoming(s) that still makes them inferior to ICE. Eh?

@chucktobias
> "it's not the "free market" when government demands (...)"
It's the government using the free market for what it sees as the good of the people.
The government using "Market Facilitation" as a form of "Economic Stewardship" is part of modern non "laissez-faire" economy is nothing new.
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> "An inexpensive compact EV is inferior to its gasoline equivalent in nearly every practical aspect"
In what aspects? Feel free to elaborate, I would really love to know.
I'm waiting to learn in what ways my EV is inferior to my ICE.

> "The resale value of EVs is dismal"
10 year old Tesla model S are still going for 20 grand. and those are nothing like the newer ones.
Good EVs have good resale values, of course some Leaf or Bolt won't but that's just because they aren't good enjoyable cars.
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@daywalker
> "375 miles of range (...) if I want an EV that can do close to that range (...) >$73,000"
Nope.
A $45k IONIQ6 SE has 361 miles of range (which it outperforms)
and a $47k Tesla model 3 long range was tested to have 358 miles of real world range.
These are cars in the US.
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> "When I drive(...) 500-600 miles (...) only need to stop one time to refuel."
So like an iONIQ6?
> "less than 5 minutes to fuel up"
We can act as if the 10 minute difference on the occasion that you go on a long road trip is significant but c'mon.
> "It’s hypothetical because EVs fall woefully short"
ON AVERAGE, EVs outperform range estimates.
Sorry this is not true, I haven't seen any good EV fall short - so far my one is outperforming.
Edmunds tested and the only ones that fell significantly short are Lucid Air Grand Touring and large SUVs / high performance models.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html
The Kona EV for example outperformed by 50 miles, the Taycan by over 120 miles, the mustang by almost 50 miles, the EV6 by 13 miles, etc.
On my car I love comparing the odometer with the range, the odometer ticks up way faster than the range decreases, by about 5% when cruising at over 85mph, and 15% when cruising at 60.
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People I know that own Teslas never come close to the expected range.  And the range degrades with time.  Long term reliability and durability of these EVs is unknown. My 14 year old truck is at 375 miles range and I paid $19,000 back in 2017 for it.

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I would not own any Hyundai POS.

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Anyways, it’s clear you are an EV fan.  I guess you will be recommending EVs to our members that ask “Which car to get?”

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The only thing I will say is EVs are probably good for in-city commuting and going to work each day (and then charging there or at home).  And then get rid of the vehicle after the warranty is up.

"In what aspects? Feel free to elaborate, I would really love to know."


@dan, for starters what kind of condition will that car be in 25 years or so, particularly the battery? As someone who primarily drives cars that are 25-30 years old which, by the way have not lost a significant amount of range in that time and have not required expensive repairs, that's something I'd be interested in. How long will the battery last before there is noticeable degradation? How long before the high voltage system, which the owner could not work on without serious threat of electrocution, breaks down?


Of course no one wants a car fire but ask any fireman, they are much worse in electric cars, taking many thousands of gallons of water to put out and presenting an electrocution risk to fire fighters.


Then we have the issue of extreme weather affect on batteries and the very real issue that as of today and likely for quite some time to come there are not a whole lot of charging stations compared to gas stations. In fact if I happen to decide to or need to on the spur of the moment take a cross-country trip in a gasoline-powered car I can do so without a thought or worry as to where I'm going to fuel up. Despite all the talk of thousands of charging stations being built and how wonderful it's all going to be the fact is that you still need to plan a long trip around where you can charge up.


Electrical demand skyrocketing in your area? You may well be told not to charge your electric car until demand subsides.


That's just off the top of my head. I certainly don't need any of that.

I don't think anybody is gung-ho, and it's still difficult to recommend such a new unproven technology. But I think it's healthy to keep a somewhat open mind . Change is inevitable whether I like it or not, and the most effective strategy is to keep abreast, and learn how to take advantage of it. It seems that North America is behind the other continents like Europe and Asia in this direction, not to mention there are differences in culture, geography etc. so obviously it will impact the world in different degrees.

“Sorry this is not true, I haven't seen any good EV fall short - so far my one is outperforming.
Edmunds tested and the only ones that fell significantly short are Lucid Air Grand Touring and large SUVs / high performance models.”
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html
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I subscribe to Edmunds and am aware of those range tests and it’s not the complete story. Other publications have gotten far less range especially when looking at Car and Driver’s EV range when going 75 mph on the highway. EVs lose range as the speed increases. And like I said I know many people with Teslas that get much less real-world range than what Tesla claims for EPA.
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There is a lot of real world conditions that are impossible for you and publications to test, lots of use cases. I wouldnt hang my hat on what these publications publish.  Also, you are still in the honeymoon phase of EVs and learning so you will be upbeat about it.

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I just know co-workers and friends/family with EVs tell me it’s only really good for commuting to work and back but not so great for long distance driving, towing, or road trips. Let’s not pretend it’s great.
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I also don’t want to own several cars for different uses. I want fewer vehicles that can cover more use cases for me. It’s also more cost effective. I don’t need an EV commuter car for work when I have an ICe car that can do that AND take me wherever I need to go.

>Posted by: @chucktobias
>The plastic melting issue is a ridiculous lapse on Toyota's part but is cosmetic.
But it's not just cosmetic. Today we are seeing plastic everywhere. Plastic intakes, plastic timing chain components, plastic sensors, plastic bodies... We are squeezing the ever loving life out of itty bitty 4 cylinder engines with turbos and direct injection. Engines that start burning oil after the warranty expires. Unibodies designed to crumple (and get written off) in a collision. EVERYTHING is becoming computer controlled. We have tail light replacements for pickups costing $6,000 (if you can even get one with all the shortages). And these are $40k and up cars. They're not gonna last. They're going to fail at 100k and get crushed soon after. Some people may even still be paying it off! No, not even today's Corollas will last I predict.

@daywalker
> "Anyways, it’s clear you are an EV fan"
Why do you think so? that's not the case, you can read the answer to your question.
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And yeah after the 8/10 year battery warranty is up I don't think there's a reason to keep these still early somewhat early EVs. If Toyota-BYD's Blade battery actually retains 90% capacity after 10 years and lasts for as long as they expect it to, then when we'll see.
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I'm not against them, I'm not for them - I agree with @mmj It is healthy to keep an open mind.

For certain applications these can be good cars, definitely not in most cases we see on the forum.
Since getting an EV from work, the only thing that's changed is me having hands-on experience, and being able to confirm that "It's not a bad experience at all".
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In my particular case it's also especially great, EV tech is mature enough to not require any recharging where I live.

Previously I had a Volvo C30 hot hatch for this kind of roads, but somehow the Geometry manages to be a better, "hotter", while having near 0 operating costs.
Yeah some people will have to spend an extra 10, god forbid a full 30 minutes more on a 1,100 mile road trip on charging but c'mon that's not that serious of an issue for new luxury car buyers who don't keep their car for over 5 years anyway, which are the majority of EV buyers so far in the US.

@dan what is that image showing? It took 91% of the car's battery to drive 500km?
And the bolt symbols are charging stations?

I do have an open mind. Like I said, let’s give people the option to choose ICE, hybrid, hydrogen, EV, etc. Clearly for me ICE is still the way to go.

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BTW, I own all battery-electric products at home (for gardening, mowing lawn, tools for car).  And back when I was in the hobby, I flew only electric RC planes, jets, and helicopters.   So, I have skin in that game.
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Scotty has praised Toyota for their approach and I agree. That company is offering ICE, hybrid, hydrogen, and now EVs. And they are slowly rolling out EVs rather than jumping “all-in” like a bunch of other companies. That, to Scotty and me, is the best strategy.
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And I keep saying it, if someone absolutely wants to go electrified today, hybrid is still the best way to go. And Toyota will gladly sell you them.

on such a long trip, in ANY vehicle, I'm stopping for at least an hour anyway. And over 800km I'm probably stopping overnight.

“on such a long trip, in ANY vehicle, I'm stopping for at least an hour anyway. And over 800km I'm probably stopping overnight.“
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When I stop to get an EV charged, I demand a time comparable to what it takes to fuel up an ICE.  I just want to get in and out.  Y’all do you, but I don’t want to go backwards. We are obviously not there, today, but maybe in the future we will be. Let’s wait and see.

sure. demand whatever you like. You seem in an awful hurry. LoL

. @mmj Yeah, 91% is how much percentage of the battery it would require (from my experience it would require a bit less) to drive those 440 km (as a lot of those roads are limited to 80kmh and on those the Geely over preforms by around 4%-5% consuming 15.8 kWh/100km)
For the last few weeks this car ended up being 220 km a day of high speed highway driving, and it consumes only 200km of range.
The bolt symbols on the map are the charging stations.
And yep the Geely Geometry C does 485km on a single charge on the long range variant, it's just a wonderful car.


It's not only the specs and the performance it's also the plushness and comfort - Volvo level on a car that's less than a Corolla hybrid.
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We're entering a very interesting area, where almost anyone with capital can buy a CATL battery, a NIDEC motor, Futuris Automotive seats, and other generic components to assemble a decent car.
(the Russians, Vietnamese, and even Croatians are doing that)
It's probably gonna be interesting!

Oh, and I also demand just as many EV Fast Charging stations as gas stations.

. @daywalker
Where I live pretty much all gas stations on major roads also have EV charging areas - but the real beauty is that there are plenty of charging stations just on the street, in malls, at a lot of McDonald's.
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This will definitely happen in cali, Cali requires 35% of total new vehicle sales in 2026 to be EVs so there's no reason for gas station owners to not invest a few grand into a charging station on their property.
The cali created the demand needed so that the free market can invest in EV infrastructure and make a profit on it.
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Cali has 8,161 gas stations and 5,687 Tesla charging ports, Electrify America, and other providers, have a bunch of stations in Cali, they're not that far off.
The beauty of EV charging stations in that they can be placed in a Walmart parking lot, at a mall, at a CVS, pretty much anywhere where there is a parking space and electricity. (along with the fact that many people can have their own EV fuel station at their house, at a very low cost)

"In what aspects? Feel free to elaborate, I would really love to know."
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@Dan in addition to what Chuck said, there’s also the following:
- higher insurance (at least here in the US)
- higher curb weight of EV due to battery pack (can cause premature wear of components)
- tires wear out sooner (compared to ICE) due to heavier weight from battery pack
- thanks to all glass roof, it can get warmer inside especially if parked outside in the sun
- of course range anxiety and having to really plan for some long distance trips. You have to plan more (and better) versus ICE, at the moment.
- unproven technology compared to ICE; I would not own EVs outside of warranty, probably not as big of an issue if you get a new car every few years (but how many people can really afford to do that? I can’t)

not a bad looking car, inside and out.

“Cali has 8,161 gas stations and 5,687 Tesla charging ports, Electrify America, and other providers, have a bunch of stations in Cali, they're not that far off.”
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@Dan You specified the number of EV charging ports, but how many stations? That matters more. If California has 8,161 gas stations, I would want a comparable number of EV charging stations (not to be confused with charging ports).
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And then what about the rest of the country? You know, I go to remote parts of Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico. Need as many charging stations there as gas stations.

> "I also demand just as many EV Fast Charging stations as gas stations."
Unless I'm on a trip, I go to the same gas station 99% of the time. Maybe two.

“Unless I'm on a trip, I go to the same gas station 99% of the time. Maybe two.”
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Also, consider this fact. You pull up to a gas station and it’s packed, and you have to wait for the guy in front of you to finish gassing up. Ok, it’s a little annoying, but no problem - the guy or gal is done in 5 or so minutes and you pull in.
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Now, imagine the same thing happening at an EV charging station except you have to wait much longer, what 20, 30, 40 min, maybe an hour (and that’s just to get to 80% state of charge!). Forget that! This is why it’s still important for EVs to be able to charge up as fast as an ICE vehicle (benchmark is 5 minutes) as well as be able to charge up to 100% so you have the full range at your disposable. Of course fast charging and charging to 100% often can cause the battery to degrade. Guess what? No such limitations or problems with an ICE car or a hybrid vehicle.

@daywalker
>" the guy or gal is done in 5 or so minutes and you pull in."
when the prices dip, line-ups go around the block sometimes. Especially at Costco
If I charged at home, that would mostly be a thing of the past. The community arts centre a few steps away also has chargers. As does city hall, the library , malls, and now even several retailers. And they continue to get more numerous. I don't believe that what you're describing will ever happen

>"Now, imagine the same thing happening at an EV charging station except you have to wait much longer, what 20, 30, 40 min, maybe an hour"
you do understand that with an EV you may never need to set foot in a charging station.
With an ICE vehicle, yes you have no choice but to go refuel weekly or biweekly.
So in reality, over the lifetime of the vehicle, you may actually spend more time refuelling an ICE vehicle than an EV one. (which refuels while I sleep or work)

. @daywalker
Great now lets see if the "inferior-ness" is actual concerns or nitpicking
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>"- higher insurance (at least here in the US)"
On average that's $25 a month, that's not a REAL concern.
And all of that is mainly due to being higher performance cars.
I'm saving more than $25 a month on gas that's for sure
(In California, compared to a Corolla 2.0L, $12.15 cheaper per every 100 miles)
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>"higher curb weight of EV due to battery pack"
On average we're talking about a rather minute 440 lbs difference,
The weight of a Toyota Corolla changes way more then that by body style and market.
Also, the handling of the mass is improved, with a super low center of gravity and 50-50 weight distribution on EVs - the suspension feels better and lasts more.
This is a stigma that stuck since the 2000s where conventional compact cars were light and unsafe, but nowadays they're about the same weight.
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>"tires wear out sooner (...) due to heavier weight from battery pack"
Again, those 440 lbs won't make your ties last that much shorter, feels like nitpicking.
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>"thanks to all glass roof"
How's that a criticism of EVs?
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>"range anxiety"

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>"You have to plan more"
I feel like glancing at ABRP is less of a concern and more of nitpicking.
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>"unproven technology"
This unproven technology is warrantied to last 8-10 years.
Does your "proven technology" have an 8 year drivetrain warranty?
Better yet Toyota-BYD are warrantying 90% capacity retention over 10 years, this indicates to me that it may have a lot more than 10 years of life in it.
Most people who buy a brand new car don't keep it that long, so it's a non-issue.
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EVs came such a long way that all their "downsides" seem to me like nitpicking.
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I can nitpick ICEs the same way, having to replace oil and expensive transmission fluid, insane mechanical complexity, CVTs and reliability issues on modern automatic transmissions, GDI engines, catalytic convertor theft and having to deal with emissions inspections, the fact that if you want to have a well performing car you have to put up with huge gas costs, etc.
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Also I agree with @mmj , the lifetime charging time saved is significant.
I don't need to drive to gas stations or stop at them in 99.9% of trips.

@Dan seems you have become a spokesperson for EVs and on the EV bandwagon.

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If it’s so great, go ahead and starting recommending them to our members who want to keep their cars well beyond the warranty period. While I continue to recommend Toyota/Honda ICE, you go ahead and recommend EVs to them. Scotty also remains unconvinced of EVs as they stand today and doesn’t recommend them.  Anyways, I will continue to drive my ICE for a long time.

Also, those issues were not nitpicks, they were real issues. Your numbers for insurance in California are wrong. EVs especially Teslas cost way more. For my insurance policy with my current insurance (already amongst the cheapest and most competitive) a new Model 3 would cost me $500 more per year over a new Lexus ES350. The other concerns I mentioned are not nitpicks - people with EVs I know have complained about it changing tires every 15,000 miles whereas before they were changing every 40,000-50,000 miles. 440+ lb weight difference is a big deal - are you kidding me? And people have complained at least in the Teslas about sun coming through the top glass and interior being hotter than in their previous ICE cars.  Going to EV full time is truly a lifestyle change and people have to acknowledge that.
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Anyways, I am done discussing this with you.  We are not going to convince each other of the other guys’ points.  You do you and I will do me. To each their own.

@DayWalker
I'm just realistic.
It really seems that you are EV-phobic,
And I still don't get in what way is my EV inferior to my ICE.
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> "440 lb weight difference is a big deal"
What? That's half the deference between a Corolla Cross and a RAV4 Hybrid.
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> "tires every 15,000 miles (...) 40,000-50,000 miles"
No clue what you're saying, my EV has a 40,000 mile tread life warranty.
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> "$500 more per year"
so $41 a month, and if you drive the national average of 1,200 miles you'll save $206.8 on gas a month.
That is $12,500 SAVED on gas in 5 years, in a sedan the performance of a Ferrari Lusso or a Porsche Boxster.
And after 5 years the Tesla is worth $30k book value (loss of $17,250), while ES350 drops to $23.5k (loss of $19,590)
Also the Tesla model 3 long range does 0-60 in 4.2 seconds, the Lexus ES takes 6.1 seconds, 50% slower.
So $41 a month to insure a higher performing car, that costs less to operate, and depreciates less - sounds like a good deal.
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EVs are a car like any car but:
without having to go to the gas pump,
while not spending ANYTHING on maintenance,
almost free fuel,
similar purchase price,
much better performance and handling,
much better safety (generally),
better warranties.
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The caveat is that the 3rd/4th owner may not have the greatest time but that's their issue.
For some, like yours truly, this is clear that they're the way to go, and I see why EV adoption is sky rocketing.

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I do not get people's phobia of EVs.

@daywalker
stating plain fact is "becoming a spokesperson" now? 🤷‍♂️ Shouldn't we try be honest , rational, objective and logically consistent?
400lbs (two passengers) makes tires last 3x less? Come on. Don't believe everything you hear from people. common sense should tell you that's preposterous.
There are plenty of fair criticisms, but you really are nitpicking. Yes some things will take getting used to, but try to look at the overall picture.
You're trying a little too hard to dish dirt, and it makes it sound like you just invested in petroleum stocks or something.

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Posted by: @daywalker

Here is the breakdown of conquest buyers:

  • Toyota 15.3%
  • Honda 13.3%
  • BMW 6.7%
  • Mercedes 6.2%
  • Ford 5.4%
  • Lexus 5.3%
  • Chevrolet 4.7%
  • Audi 4.4%
  • Subaru 4.3%

One other way to interpret this data, is that there are more Toyota and Honda owners than the other brands. It would be interesting to correlate these percentages to actual market share of sedans/compact crossover SUV’s of these companies. 

Ford and Chevy are potentially lower conquest because they sell more trucks. 

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Posted by: @dan

The suggestion that people will stop their lives, quit their jobs, run over to their car and move across states, because "instead of a $27,700 Corolla Cross XLE those MONSTERS made me buy a $26,500 Chevy Bolt LT!" sounds ridiculous to me.

Perhaps not so ridiculous when people are FORCED to live with the limitations and drawbacks of the Bolt vs. the Corolla Cross, with consumer choice FORCIBLY removed. However it is more likely a "straw that broke the camel's back" situation. States like California have been losing people and businesses in droves due to their policies for years. This will be just one more abuse to pile on top of an already tall and fragrant heap. (Even Tesla ran away to Texas!) Packing on yet another draconian policy will only increase the outflow from California and similar states even if the last straw on its own may not have been enough.

Posted by: @dan

People like to act like EVs are the plague

They may not be the plague, but the problem is they are being shoved down car buyers' throats via the force of the State with the full intent of removing consumer choice in the near future. That is what most of us who are not supporters of electrification object to the most. If the market had gone that way naturally on its own there would be little or no complaint.

Exactly!

Fair point, on the other hand if everything was left to happen "naturally" without initiatives , progress would be slow or non-existent.
Would USA have gone to the moon, if the government hadn't made it a mission? People count on government to have leadership, and a direction which represents their values.
Private enterprise is only able to innovate if it turns a quick profit. There is no incentive to invest in things that don't benefit them directly. ie things that benefit the nation or all of mankind, things that manifest over the long term, or things produce non-monetary benefits.

I want limited government.  Currently, they are too big and overreach.  How they handled COVID was the last straw.  Spending is also out of control, and they can hardly be trusted with sound leadership these days.

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Let people choose what vehicle they want to drive.  If EVs are gaining on ICE and eventually surpass them in every way including in cost, then they will eventually win over.  But that’s the free market deciding.

hahaha. who will build your interstates? educate your kids? arbitrates your civil disputes, implement a system of currency, ....

An issue is that there is no compelling reason for this change to be forced on the public. Battery electric cars overall provide no benefit to the nation or all of mankind. I have seen no evidence that the majority of people in the U.S. were clamoring that they wanted this change. If that were the case the major manufacturers would have been tripping all over themselves to engineer, build, and sell them in order to make more money. (An in-depth discussion of the proper role of government is way, way off-topic for this forum.)


The Apollo moon program while an amazing accomplishment in reality was a political reaction to the Soviet Union launching Sputnik in 1957. It was the "space race", which I lived through and experienced first-hand. If not for the competition provided by the Soviets it most likely would not have happened.

The free market is a good thing, but it has it's place. It cannot solve everything. I have no problem with a nation uniting to advance some common goals.
The problem with the USA is the two party system that is firmly entrenched. It really polarizes everybody, splits them into only two camps. It leaves very little room in the middle or choices for representation, and makes it very difficult for a nation to agree on anything.

yeah the space race on the surface seems like a very frivolous pursuit. Nobody would have ever pursued it for at least another 100 years were it not for people putting tax dollars behind it. But it spawned endless, incalculable technological benefits right?

The space race did advance technology, however we do not know if those technologies would have been developed in any event. Private enterprise has spawned many technological developments as well. War also spawns endless, incalculable technological benefits. (World War 2 brought us quite a few.) Perhaps we just need to let government kill more people to move technology forward even faster?

I'm sure most would agree that a cursory cost-vs-benefit analysis on a world war would be a "no". But often we aren't left with much choice in the matter.
Sure we would have stumbled on some of those technologies eventually. But ALL of them? .... I think not. And then you have to ask yourself, then WHAT events would have led to those discoveries. There always has to be some catalyst one way or another.

Hard to say. Why did Edison's lab invent light bulbs, phonographs, and movies? Why did Henry Ford and his crew invent the Model T? Why did Lee de Forest invent the electronic vacuum tube? Why did Bell Labs invent the transistor? Why did Texas Instruments produce the first integrated circuit? Why did a Xerox invent Ethernet?


Of course you could argue that the internet started out as a military project (ARPANET) and you would be correct. However, private enterprise also developed world-spanning computer networks. In fact when I was working at DEC in the 1980s their world-wide engineering network, running on in-house developed DECnet, was larger than the internet of that time. We had world-wide email, file transfer, remote system access, bulletin boards, etc. and in fact I met a good friend living in Israel at the time that way. In the absence of ARPANET something like the internet could well have arisen using something like DECnet.


The point is that there no lack of technological innovation provided by free enterprise. However, we're getting just bit far afield here. (There are plenty of political discussion boards on the internet and this isn't one of them.)

So decnet is an example of commercialization of an already established technology developed in academia since the 60s. It's something that required public infrastructure and cooperation to work.

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There's a sucker born every minute and two to take him.

When they bought their Toyota and Honda products, they were smart. How do they go from that to being a sucker?  I figured the non-Toyota and non-Honda owners would be the suckers.

Some otherwise intelligent people like to jump on bandwagons, have whatever the latest shiny thing is, and/or are enamored of gadgetry. Some are deluded into thinking they are "saving the planet" or some such nonsense.

that's right. They get pats on the back and that feeling of smugness from being told they are good boys and girls for doing as their told.

That still does not explain why a larger percentage of Toyota/Honda owners switched to Tesla versus, say, German car owners.

How many were owners of Toyota or Honda hybrids? Hybrids, particularly the Toyota Prius, for years were the favorite of virtue signalers to show off to everyone around them how much they "cared". That role has been taken over by Tesla and other electric cars.

Here’s my theory: People, like me, initially gave into Toyota and Honda on the idea that the car would be reliable and not need much repairs under their ownership. Maintenance and total cost of ownership would be less than rivals.
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Then, when EVs (and Tesla being the poster child) came out a new message was spread about EVs being little-to-no maintenance, very few moving parts compared to ICE (and therefore less things to go wrong), and total cost of ownership that would be less than even a Toyota or Honda. I have seen comparisons showing cost of maintenance of Tesla Model 3 being less than a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.
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Anyways, misguided or not, I feel those Toyota/Honda owners migrated to Tesla because they felt the total cost of ownership would be less. Time will tell if their gamble paid off.

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Topic starter

According to the article, the top five Model Y conquests are the Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Honda Odyssey, and Honda Accord.

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Meanwhile, the top five Model 3 conquests are the Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.

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Posted by: @daywalker

If the European Union wants to protect their auto industry, they need to have huge tariffs.  You can bet here in the United States we won’t be letting the Chinese (and the Communist Party) have their way here

Posted by: @dan

I do not think what you're suggesting, initiating a trade war with china, is a good idea

By the way - There are news on this.

EU wanted to probe the Chinese auto industry.

 

In return,

China have threatened the German auto industry with destruction.

leading to the German transport minister rejecting punitive tariffs.

As German automakers are very depended on the Chinese market (1/4-1/2 of the luxury sales)

 

And placed a de-facto rare earth metal embargo on the European auto industry.

 

 

I do not see how the EU can win what seems to be the start of a trade war.

 

Considering that the EU in a GINORMOUS trade imbalance with China.

 

also this FT article describes the situation too:

https://www.ft.com/content/60b305f7-96ba-49c2-9c82-38e40593234a

This post was modified 6 days ago 2 times by Dan
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One other thing to note. Just from the Tesla owners I know. Most of them kept there Honda/Toyota.

One Tesla owner I know kept their Highlander.

Another one I know kept their Pilot and Prius.

Another one kept there Prius.

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Most who are switching from Honda and Toyota are foreigners, India to be specific.  

This study concerns the North American market, not the global market.

Yes, good majority of foreigners living in the US drive Honda & Toyota, and for whatever reason a lot of them are buying Teslas.

Not sure how you define a foreigner. Technically, anyone living in the United States that is not a Native American is a foreigner.
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Anyways, just because they don’t look like me nor you doesn’t make them a foreigner. A lot of them were born and raised here and are US Citizens. They are not foreigners.
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Also, your statement is nonsense. I live in California - the most populous and diverse state in the Union - and the majority of people I see driving Teslas are, wait for it, White People.  I also see many White People drive Toyotas and Hondas, way more than Indians.

@watchamacallit
which wave of aboriginal "natives"? If you want to get THAT technical, then everybody is a foreigner and the only true natives MIGHT be in Africa. (and even they were probably replaced by migration at some point).
Before getting too triggered and offended, try using common sense. He's probably talking about 1st or 2nd generation landed immigrants.
Now lets gets back on topic, eh?

That’s why I asked him to define a foreigner.

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Honestly, he was better off just saying “Many Asians or Indians drive Honda/Toyota and many of them migrated to Teslas”.  I think using the term ‘foreigner’ was a misnomer.

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And my observation in the most populous and diverse state in the nation does not back his claim up.

I will say that a significant portion, if not most, EV drivers I see on the road here (Vancouver. Most Teslas per capita on the planet) are wealthy , fairly fresh immigrants from China.

@imperator well Asians in particular can be “label whores”, so I am not surprised.

you're not wrong. If it's not a Tesla, then it's a BMW/Mercedes/Audi. White SUV, typically.

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