Hey Scotty,
We always talk about the cost to replace EV batteries in the future using cost figures of today. But that’s one snapshot in time. But, I got thinking, shouldn’t battery prices in the future be coming down especially if more manufacturers scale up and they all end up using the same battery chemistry such as LFP? Think of big screen TVs or computer memory chips how expensive they were at first but how affordable they became over time. I imagine EVs (being a fancy techno gizmo) will be similar.
(Adding @Dan to the discussion)
Battery cells are a commodity and their prices fluctuate -
In the past 3 years we saw prices as little as around $80/kWh to as high as $150/kWh - but that's when sold as a commodity.
Generally, the stable price EV manufactures get to lock in is lower than commodity pricing and tending down.
As an example of how relatively inexpensive batteries are getting is the Ford Mach-E standard range.
The cost of the battery cells in that car is just 16% of the cost of the vehicle - and that's HUGE battery in a rather large car!
At the price Ford is paying for their LFP batteries,
The battery of a rather large compact SUV with 275 miles of range and fast charging EV is already under 6 grand!
We're at the point where an almost Camry sized 275 mile EV sedan battery is just under 5 grand in cells! ($4,925)
(In both cases the battery is warrantied to retain 90% after 8/10 years of use - so these aren't cheapo bad batteries either)
I feel that the current price of batteries that manufacturers are able to lock-in is good, and I do not see them becoming that much cheaper.
(Perhaps maybe in 5 years batteries will get locked-in at ~$70/kWh, but anything less than that is overly optimistic)
Also another thing I can see is 2nd time experienced EV owners opting for smaller batteries,
People no longer buy 100kwh batteries in a Model S,
nowadays popular cars like the iONIQ6 and Model3 standard range cars are offered with 53kwh and 57kwh respectively.
I can defiantly see these battery capacities shrinking further in the future, especially with 2nd time experienced EV buyers.
The prices companies are asking for replacement batteries and parts in general often have nothing to do with the cost of manufacture,
As the market for refurbished EV batteries grows, I'd expect we see firms that refurbishing them just as they do with HEVs.
There's a great YT channel (Aging Wheels) that owns old outdated EVs and watching him rebuild batteries are replace cells - it's clear that's it's doable as a business on a large scale when there will be enough demand.
batteries aren't exactly the same as TV's though.
With TV's you're mostly paying for the manufacturing and labour. material cost isn't a huge factor.
Costs came down when the mass manufacturing processes were established, and the initial R&D investment was paid off.
I suspect the same isn't true for batteries. Lithium is a relatively rare element, and refining it requires significant amounts of water and energy.
The price now has spiked, so they're not meeting demand.
EDIT: evidently this is old news. Prices in 2023 have fallen back down. (following EV sales speculation of course)
Although Lithium is a component in the price of EV batteries, it has much less effect on cost than people think.
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Since 2008 EV battery prices fell by 90% - During the same time, lithium carbonate prices remained stagnant until they recently spiked.
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The reason why this is possible, is simply because "usual lithium-ion battery types consist of 11 percent lithium and different amounts of cobalt"
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Sources:
The 11% figure in Lithium-ion batteries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203083/composition-of-lithium-ion-batteries/
Batteries getting cheaper:
https://insideevs.com/news/630407/ev-batteries-90-percent-cheaper-2022/
Historical Lithium prices:
https://www.fuelseurope.eu/uploads/files/modules/documents/file/1657719258_MUDyINczqsBv3vK4FnsqGexKDAIeRpoycCchW2td.pdf
your link confirms exactly what I said.
The price of lithium carbonate had a direct impact on supply, and therefore price.
"Price of lithium carbonate in China extended its rally to around $75,000 per
tonne in March. This translates to a dramatic price increase of more than
900% from 2020 and is attributed to an imbalance in global supply amid huge
demand."
There's a very intresting article that goes into how Lithium is used in EVs.
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The highlights are that:
- "An EV powered by a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery typically uses 30-40 kilograms of lithium carbonate"
- Your graph is until 2022, 2023 had prices decline.
-"For an EV with a 70-kWh pack, the cost of the battery is now RMB 12,300 - RMB 14,500 lower than when lithium carbonate prices were at their previous high, analysts say." ((That's a BIG battery for just $2110 USD))
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Source: https://cnevpost.com/2023/03/30/analysts-how-falling-lithium-carbonate-affect-ev-costs/
it's declining because nobody is buying them. None of this is significant. EV sales are going to be like crypto for the next decade. Up and down based on speculation and gambling habits of investors. It's an immature, unestablished volatile product.
"it's declining because nobody is buying them"
Lithium batteries? no that's just not true, people are buying more and more.
EV? also people are buying more and more.
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"It's an immature, unestablished volatile product"
Lithium ion batteries? they're super well established.
EVs? more than 1 in 13 cars sold in the US, and 1 in 7 in Europe (1 in 5 if we include PHEVs, source: EU Commission), Where I am it's 1 in 5 - and it has been showing strong growth even in a high interests rate environment and despite questionable trade and taxation practices by some of the authorities governing over major markets.
Running AC cooling or heating is 600W peak and about 100W-150W to maintain.
So at maintenance an EV can maintain the cabin heat for 4 using just 0.85% of the battery.
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In a previous discussion we have talked about EV winter performance as tested by a Norwegian agency - where it's cold and EVs are plentiful and results showed that EV performance in the cold was good.
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The loss of range due to cold was just 11% on the Tesla Model Y LR Dual motor,
and the cheap Chinese MG5 has just lost 17% from its WLTP raiting in temperatures as cold as -19C- meaning it performs just slightly worse in cold than in heat.
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Y'know I was once concerned before taking delivery as to how AC would affect my range - I was pleasantly surprised to see that both with/without it was about the same, within margin of error.
Once more, that’s more BS from you, Dan. Consumer Reports they run testing on vehicles and they found the following after testing the following EVs the Ford Mustang Mach-E extended range, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Tesla Model Y Long Range, and Volkswagen ID.4 Pro S.
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“same drivers, driven in a caravan on three different days: a frigid one, a mild one, and a warm one. We found that cold weather saps about 25 percent of range when cruising at 70 mph compared with the same conditions in mild weather.”
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“ In the past, we found that short trips in the cold with frequent stops and the need to reheat the cabin saps 50 percent of the range.”
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“This test shows that EV range isn’t an absolute metric. Weather, hills, speed, traffic, cargo, passengers, and climate settings have an impact. ”
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Source: https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/how-temperature-affects-electric-vehicle-range-a4873569949/
Multiply your number 10x
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"For a more concrete example, the average vehicle needs somewhere in the range of 4-8 kW of heating/cooling capacity...Bumping the draw up to 8 kW for an electric resistance heater would be equivalent to increasing speed to 130 kph or cutting range by 40%!"
( https://chargedevs.com/features/a-closer-look-at-energy-consumption-in-evs/)
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Tesla Model 3 heater: 6,800 W initially, stabilizing to 4,800 W ( https://insideevs.com/news/340327/lets-look-at-energy-consumption-of-tesla-model-3-heater/)
Just the motor is consuming around 20,000W to cruise down the highway 70mph. (not counting any other accessories or computers)
The average EV has a 40,000 W-h battery. (which you need to derate for cold, at least 15%, so actually 34,000Wh being generous)
You're down to 1.5hrs of use. You're not going to get very far. And now there's no charger around, or there's a line up because everyone's using it because their EV is dead. Fun.
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The AAA found a 41% reduction in range ( https://www.cars.com/articles/our-tesla-model-y-in-cold-weather-how-was-range-affected-448043/).
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Study from 2022:
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Study from 2023:
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Car and Driver ( https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31739529/how-much-does-climate-control-affect-ev-range/)
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"a 15-gallon gas tank holds the equivalent of 505.5 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy. That's more than six times what our Model 3 carries fully charged. The second reason is that, unlike in a gasoline-fueled car, where waste heat from the engine is used to heat the cabin with little impact on efficiency, an EV's heat or A/C is also drawing directly from the battery. Any energy used for comfort can't be used for propulsion."
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" set to 72 degrees and on automatic, where the Model 3 consumed energy at a rate of 402 Wh/mile, just a tick below 17 percent more energy than the run without HVAC. At that rate of consumption, the predicted range falls to 200 miles."
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"With the heat blasting at that rate you could expect your range to drop to a meager 173 miles by consuming about 35 percent more energy than our baseline run."
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EV? also people are buying more and more.
I'm sure the gullible will fall for that, but I don't buy Chinese propaganda. Everything about China is fake.
USA:
"lithium carbonate market is stabilized in the USA, assisted by the slowdown in new orders and the slippery slope of export sales."
Europe:
The EU is investigating Chinese predatory pricing:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/
"weak demand"
" consumer inquiries being notably subdued."
"consumers adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" approach"
https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/lithium-carbonate-1269
Posted 3 days ago:
"Slower-than-expected consumer adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2023, wavering economic growth in China since the pandemic, and burgeoning lithium and cobalt supplies have sent prices of both metals lower, even as producer/hedger interest in futures contracts has expanded dramatically. "
https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/metals/2023/Battery-Metals-Prices-are-Falling-Will-Demand-Catch-up-to-Supply.html
hedger interest = hype
Posted today:
" EV sales have disappointed expectations in the U.S., "
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651101-battery-metals-prices-are-falling-will-demand-catch-up-to-supply
"Macroeconomic headwinds from the world's top EV consumer, China, furthered expectations that its key electric vehicle industry will fail to maintain growth."
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
"More alarm bells sound on slowing demand for electric vehicles"
"China's Electric Vehicle Bubble Is Starting to Deflate"
even when there’s a strong factual base that no such issue exists, or when there are solutions, people just aren’t looking to change views.
I will tell you something right now: I don’t care what powers a vehicle. Just like I don’t really care about car brands and not a fan boy of any brand. But since I want something reliable and will last me a long time I go with Toyota; if something more reliable and lasts longer comes out in the future, I will go with that (and promote it to others).
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With the current options for vehicle propulsion, for me ICE checks all the boxes and is still the best method of propulsion. I have seen all the pros and cons of EVs to say that it’s not there yet, certainly not for me and others (many others) in similar boats. Once EVs address mine and others shortcomings and it becomes beyond compelling that it does everything better than ICE including cost, reliability, durability, convenience, total cost of ownership then I will switch over. As it stands, all my gardening tools (including lawn mower) are all battery electric and I could not be happier. Even my RC planes and helicopters when I used to fly were all battery-electric. I would never go back to gas in those areas!
RC batteries make sense, giant batteries that take hours to recharge simply don't, lol. RC airplanes also have another advantage- no fuel slosh. Tiny airplanes are quite sensitive to even the slightest imbalance in fuel. Batteries mean there's always a fixed location for it to go- the battery pack itself.
Car and Driver ( https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32603216/ev-range-explained/)
Electric Vehicles Rarely Match or Exceed Their Range Rating in Our 75-MPH Highway Test
Unlike gas- or diesel-powered vehicles, which regularly beat their EPA ratings in our highway testing, only three of the 33 EVs that we've run range tests on to date have exceeded their EPA highway and combined figures.
Yeah, I pretty much have come to expect with a Tesla that at highway speeds you have to essentially subtract 100 miles from their EPA range and that will be your actual range.
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My 23 year old Acura Integra gets about 320 mile range and I still have 2 gallons left (I never push it to “E”) - 23 freakin’ years later. I get 31-32 mpg (23 yewrs later), vast majority highway driving at 70 mph.
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And if out of juice, not even 5 minutes on a long distance trip to fuel up. It’s especially nice to fuel so fast in inclement weather.
EVs are more suited for Europe, where most practical distances are within 50 miles. They're also more compact in Europe, and I think their power plants are more able to handle the loads. Germany is only around 400 miles wide and around 700 miles long, and they've squeezed 80 million people into it.
In America, ICE cars have been the way for over 100 years. We had trains like Europe did, hauling passengers from place to place, around the country. Now, it's only limited to AmTrak, and you need to go to big cities to catch a train. In America, you don't have the population density because of ICE cars, and the "you go alone" mentality that has come to define "freedom". We've spread 320 or so million people in the third largest country in the world. You also consider that people in the States have grown accustomed to excessively large vehicles, combined with borderline brown-out conditions at times, especially in California, that's one heck of a disaster waiting to happen. You can't overhaul in 10 years what we took in over 100 years to build, EVs are way too different.
Forget the fact that 70% of energy produced in the US is "dirty" energy, you're just moving emissions from your tailpipe to that of the power plant, unless you live near Niagara Falls or a nuclear power station.
Speculators drove the price way up, and they forgot how engrained ICE technology is. They simply got a reality check, hence the plummeting EV battery prices.
Again, nobody wants them. Honda & Gm giving up.
GM has been incompetent for the last two decades, of course they can not compete with even Stellantis!
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And Stellantis' new and beautiful $25,400 EV lineup and it's made in Europe (Slovakia, Trnava) with NO subsidies (actually the opposite, cars in Europe are taxed a lot).
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I do not know what $100k EV you're talking about,
The average car in the US was $48,000 [1][2], while the average price of an EV was $47,936. [3]
(This is the latest data from August and September 2023!)
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[1] AUG 22, 2023 - https://www.cbsnews.com/video/average-new-car-cost-us-48000-one-model-selling-less-than-20000/
[2] SEP 18, 2023 - https://www.insidehook.com/news/modern-cars-cost-too-much-affordable
[3] NOV 15, 2023 - https://www.insidehook.com/reviews/volvo-ex30-review-suv-affordable
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Let's be real, there ain't gonna be a sub $20k EV in the US - there's only one (1) ICE model that averaged under $20k in transaction cost! and it's the horrid tiny Mirage.
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And the low prices we're seeing in the EU are coming to the US regardless of questionable trade practices.
The price the Volvo EX30 EV is gonna transact at is $36,245 (NO subsidies! Destination fee included) - this is less than a nice new generation Camry.
"Nobody is buying them"
reality outside of Europe.
Heading East from Hope you don't see civilization again for another 1.5 - 2h. as you cross high mountain passes.
(at which point, I guess you get back in line with the others)
One photo in one place - yes jams exist, in most areas they’re rare.
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I’m talking with people in the US who own EVs - while the non-Tesla experience is mediocre; super chargers are great.
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But that’s all temporary, new EVs in the US will all come with the same charge ports.
(Like they have been in Europe for as long as EV charge ports have been a relevant topic)
I love my Geometry M6, my neighbor loves his Model3, my other neighbor loves his iONIQ5, and a friend of mine loves his Enyaq - they're all smooth, silent, quick, practical, efficient, economical, and just good as a methods transport.
How long have you guys had them? How long do you plan to keep them? What maintenance costs do you expect? Arguments you stated here are not enough for me.
I hope prices will drop relatively. I'm more concerned about maintenance costs.
Hi sorry I missed your reply.
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I've had my Geely Geometry for not too long, a few months.
The neighbor with the Model3 had it for almost 3 years, and the iONIQ5 had his for 2 years or so.
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The Tesla is maintenance free, absolutely no maintenance needed, the iONIQ5 is once every 2 years or 30,000km for checkups, and the Geely is the same as the iONIQ5.
As far as reliability, they have long powertrain warranties and I guess we will see if we end up needing them, I don't think we will, previous experience with MG showed they can be quite reliable.
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I'd say prices have already dropped a lot,
looking at German prices: a brand new very nice Volvo EX30 electric crossover is 34,805 € while even just the base model Toyota Corolla starts €33,500 but goes up very quickly when you select similar equipment.
And that's a Volvo SUV, there are cheaper options like the MG4 for 28,500 € brand new - it's also a pretty awesome car, they will soon begin assembling them also in Europe.
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And Stellantis has promised a €23,300 Citroen e-C3 in early 2024, and VW (I.D 2 ALL) Toyota, etc. all promise cheap options a bit later.
It is ok @dan, thanks for your reply. So there is no any extra experience on a long run. I guess I will wait some time and see what if they will keep their promises. I hope they will protect batteries from effects of salty roads in winters.
Well as far as keeping the promise of affordability, Sino-British MG, Sino-Swedish Volvo and Sino-German Smart #-series have all delivered on the promise this year.
It's going to be very interesting to see the launch of 100% European affordable EVs next year [Citroën e-C3 (2024 - €23k), Renault 5 (2024 - €25k) are the main ones I'm waiting to see]
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As far as long term reliability, eventually the battery will fail due to age - probably at about 12-15 years / 250k km of age with current tech, and I'm not sure that's much worse performance than the average new car.
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Batteries are sealed and suspended in coolant, as far as the bottom plate of the battery it's definitely an interesting thing to watch out for.
You can buy two and a quarter brand new Corollas for that much.
"EV? also people are buying more and more"(...)Chinese propaganda
Is the all available evidence showing the growth in EV marketshare in the US "CHINESE PROPAGANDA"?
Is the EU government "CHINESE PROPAGANDA" too?
Where did I even make claims about the "global" or "Chinese" market of EVs?
It is absolutely undisputed that the market share for EVs in the US and EU is rising.
Europe
EU Government: "Considerable progress in the uptake of electric cars and vans in the EU was made in 2022, with 21.6% of new car registrations being electric vehicles" (source)
If you demand newer info, here you go:
EU Commission: "European EV Market Analysis: Strong Growth Continues (...) BEVs (+50% YoY) kept gaining momentum" (source)
In the US:
"CHART: EV Sales in the U.S. Surged 79% YoY in Q1 2023" (source)
"EV sales volumes set another record in Q3, as total sales of BEVs passed 300,000 for the first time in the US market. That’s a 49.8% increase year-over-year" (source)
So I hope this is settled, strong EV sales growth this year and last year by all available data.
There's an article that covers this well,
it's called "Which is it, already – is US EV demand slowing or growing?"
https://electrek.co/2023/11/09/which-is-it-already-is-us-ev-demand-slowing-or-growing/
It covers the reality quite well - solid growth in both the US and EU (together with other markets), and an onslaught of speculative articles that just go agains't the official data.
The speculation is that these articles are funded by legacy corporations who fail to make profit in the EV segment, while companies like Tesla make huge profits.
As far as the articles, I took a bit of time to read them,
The first article you linked to was closely followed by me and I've posted about it - basically that is going nowhere because these Chinese companies decided to build factories in the EU.
Jumping to the other Reuters article, it says "Electric vehicle sales are still growing strongly", then it jumps to how the big losers in the space (GM, LG Chem) are assuring investors to not worry about their underperformance.
if you read the last article you linked to, it actually claims something completely different - not related to increase or decrease in sales. It's talking about market consolidation in China - how from 500 EV makers China has consolidated to about 100 - which is standard, the same happens in every market as it becomes as mature as this one is.
Realistically, as I see it, we can see slightly slower growth in EV sales in the US due to high import taxes and the worsening economic situation there. https://www.ft.com/content/0b02dbbb-b069-4bdf-b7a0-49ecd4d83f5c
Chinese propaganda is information coming out of China about anything. If they tell me the sky is blue, it’s probably the opposite.
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Otherwise, I agree with you that EV sales are growing here in the US albeit the rate of growth is slower now. It’s definitely growing in Europe.
Yeah the thing is that I didn’t say a thing about China lol
(as far as I’m aware, and def for all the points I’ve gotten pushback for)
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After you dismantle people’s counter augments they love to scream “propaganda” but in this case I was extra careful to only present my case using EU and US data and to not speculate, so obviously it ain’t “propaganda” or “wishful thinking”.
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I do not know where this strong anti-EV bias comes - I also was involved in it.
And I’m sorry that I was cause I was wrong almost about everything other than a few legitimate issues.
In trying to address the reality about other issues people point to, even when there’s a strong factual base that no such issue exists, or when there are solutions, people just aren’t looking to change views.
“And I’m sorry that I was cause I was wrong almost about everything other than a few legitimate issues.”
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If EVs are so good, then how come you aren’t recommending them to members when they ask which car or SUV to get next? There’s clearly some shortcomings. I thought Tesla was the answer to everything? lol.
Posted by: @daywalker
I thought Tesla was the answer to everything? lol.
Ew, What?
Why does Tesla have to do with it?
Tesla is an anti-repair typical US domestic car...
It seems like Tesla is too busy with price gouging to publish repair materials and sell parts.
I do not see myself buying a car on which 1/4 is profit and which company acts as Tesla does.
then how come you aren’t recommending them to members when they ask which car or SUV to get next?
As far as people in the US: In a last ditch attempt to preserve domestic legacy car makers the US has instated import taxes that are pretty much cost-prohibitive.
This this obstacle is to be breached sooner than later with foreign companies finishing construction of US factories late 2024, early 2025 resulting in significant drops in prices of foreign EVs.
As far as people In Europe, If someone asks me if he should get a new Tiguan or an Enyaq? C4 or Born? - In most cases I think the answer is obvious.
If EVs are so good
They are.
I love my Geometry M6, my neighbor loves his Model3, my other neighbor loves his iONIQ5, and a friend of mine loves his Enyaq - they're all smooth, silent, quick, practical, efficient, economical, and just good as a methods transport.
if something more reliable and lasts longer comes out in the future, I will go with that
Welp, consider the more likely option, the ICE cars continuing to get less and less reliable.
This trend also affects Toyota, today they will reveal a new generation Camry - if will axe non-turbo engines just like they have done it on the petrol Highlander, we might enter a different era.
Once EVs address mine and others shortcomings
I'd love to hear what are the practical shortcomings on an EV over a Hybrid.
So far I've herd mostly (1) "Cheap tires you shouldn't use anyway don't last as long on an EV luxury sports sedan as they can on a Corolla" and (2) "Although for most people you don't have to go to gas stations or fuel, once in a few months, a road trip takes 15-30 minutes more" and lastly (3) "if you happen to live in extreme cold then the range is 10%-20% less". The other shortcomings I herd are usually related to one brand or another and not the drivetrain technology.
I do not want to enter this debate again, I think we're going into it way too often, but these concerns are not major... If these are the shortcomings over a Hybrid then we're in a good place for EVs.
I can agree that Tesla cars are not appealing, perhaps this is casting a shadow on the entire industry in the US, but Teslas and domestic brand's near-monopoly is only temporary.
cost, reliability, durability, convenience, total cost of ownership
Worldwide it has, with US taxes it will take another year or two until foreign automakers establish factories there.
As it stands, all my gardening tools (including lawn mower) are all battery electric and I could not be happier. Even my RC planes and helicopters when I used to fly were all battery-electric. I would never go back to gas in those areas!
Haha yep, I'm beginning to feel the same with my SUVs.
On one hand I love them don't wanna realize the depreciation I've already gotten on them just to upgrade - on the other the EX30 or maybe a #1 are just perfect for me and my SO.
BTW, The Camry went Hybrid ONLY - As I expected, so when it comes to new cars - it's HEVs vs BEVs vs T-GDi.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a45805477/2025-toyota-camry-revealed/
As far as the argument of "overpriced" - even the luxury sports sedan standard range Tesla Model 3 is the same as a Camry.
I do not like Tesla, they're constantly busy with price gouging, but even they are getting to the point where their EVs are in the same bracket as conventional legacy competition.
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(Details: with the US federal tax credit it's $31,400 - the same as what's the Camry is expected to start at, the same price as a Prius XLE!
And without the tax credit it's $38,900 - 2 grand over a Prius limited, that's also less than what a nice Camry will cost.
Add to that low depreciation, no gas expenses, and no scheduled maintenance, plus better performance, and you see ow the EV has evolved into a reasonable choice for many.
And that's overpriced luxury Tesla, regular cars in the segment are bound to be even a better deal - but again, US tax policy doesn't allow them in yet and US production is still under construction)
At least here in the US, EVs have horrible resale value, especially Teslas now with all the price cuts. Let’s not kid ourselves. Sucks for the first (original) owners, but it’s great for those in the market for used EVs.
Nope, modern EVs ain't a Leaf or a Bolt -
Comparing the best selling ("D class") EV sedan and ICE sedan in the US, the EV has better resale value.
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If we look at trade-in book values:
it's also similar, a 2017 Model3 standard went from $36,500 (purchase price after incentives according to Edmunds) to $24,442 (so ~33% loss in 5 years according to KBB), while a Camry XSE went from $26,310 (MSRP according to Edmunds) to $11,228 (so 57% loss in value)
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As far as private party resale value:
According to CarEdge: "A Toyota Camry will depreciate 24% after 5 years", "A Tesla Model 3 will depreciate 21% after 5 years"
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And then again a Tesla is a premium semi-luxury car, it should've depreciated way more.
That is BS, and you know it. You can’t trust what any of those sources say. I have looked at actual prices of used EVs including Teslas on car selling sites like autotrader, kbb, even on BaT and they are pretty bad. It only makes sense as more and more are built, price cuts keep happening, demand slows, people don’t want to be stuck with first generation technology. Also, to be fair, most of these were overpriced to begin with so it’s just correcting in the used market.
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Anyways, I completely disagree.
Cool, if that's 'bull crap' - feel free to show proof, because I checked and NO.
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I have took the time to validate your claim on AutoTrader looking at random zip codes.
For example, in 95363 the cheapest 2017 sub-75k mile Model3 is 14% above KBB values,
and this is the case for all zip codes I have checked.
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So no, Teslas depreciate less than I even thought!!
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The other claim of "First generation tech" is also obviously not true - it ain't no leaf or bolt.
It's it's at the point where I do not see owners in 5-10 years saying "shoot! I wish I had X or Y!" regardless of how far tech will come.
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Now, it is undeniable that the Model 3, as advanced as it is - It's NOT "State Of The Art".
It's old mature tech that hadn't change at all in 7 years
(and even the Model3 is just cheaper mass produced 11 year old tech from the 2012-up Model S)
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In contrast, "state of the art" competitors, are arguably even better than Hybrids - insane efficiency, no complex mechanics, no time wasted on fueling, ultra rapid charging that ain't slower than filing up - some sub-$45k offerings already have just 13 (!) miles less range than a 2023 Honda HR-V petrol!!
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And this EV sedan with this incredible range once US local production starts, this car with that range can be as little as just $35k!
If you stand behind EVs so much, put your money where your mouth is and go ahead and recommend nothing but EVs to our members here in the US next time they ask which new vehicle to buy.
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If you want to continue to buy your Chinese Communist Party EVs, have at it. Let me know in 10, 15, 20 years how it holds up.
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BTW, your boss Scotty agrees with all my points, so the all mighty Scotty must be wrong and full of BS, too, right? I trust him over you.
You said “ultra rapid charging that ain’t slower than filling up.” More BS. I don’t see any EVs here in the US that charge in 5 minutes or less.
We've already discussed where I would recommend EVs and when they make sense - I'm still waiting on the supposedly "green" us admin to allow EV import.
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You can refer to a previous conversation I had with a different forum member on the topic of how well Chinese EVs hold up - the TLDR: is that my friend who's a mechanic and was one of the first to begin to service them says they have been incredible - in particular the MG ZS EV has been around for a long time and has help up wonderfully except a few minor concurs.
They're leaps and bounds above the reliability of GM, Ford, and most Euro cars.
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There's a really good YouTube channel that sometimes disassembles cars to modify them.
And looking at recently build cars they're excellent as far as the body, suspension, interior, and build technologies. ( auto-translated captions )
(Note: video may include non forum approved language)
In this case it's a JAC JS4 built under license in Russia - for some reason the Russian version is very light on electric tape, but other then that it's the exact replica and similarly good.
Nothing like the MG3 and GWM C10 from a decade ago that were quite poor.
As far as Scotty's opinion, you can watch the review of the Model 3 - he liked it.
"These are unique veichles for people that understand what they're getting for what they pay and they're happy with it - they're excellent vehicles" and about his Celia he said "I'd love to convert it over!"
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He has the same critiques I have about Tesla being anti-repair, he does have critiques against them, I have them too.
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I'm sure we think about them roughly the same.
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I just happen to live in a place where the EV situation is pretty serious.
I parked today and the grocery store and all of the cars on that parking were EVs.
https://imgur.com/a/cY6VolN
(Outside it there were some ICEs, but still inside it was EV only with (my) Geometry M6, (2) Geometry C, and a BYD Atto3)
It's very not uncommon to look around and only see EVs.
Whatever’s, we don’t have any long term data on how long these Chinese Communist Part EVs will last. Come back and talk to me in 2035.
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BTW, regarding the foreign makes building EVs in the US, I wouldn’t trust anything they build. What? You gonna trust Volvo, Hyundai, Mercedes, BMW now?
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Also, Scotty is completely against EVs in his Q&A videos. It’s obvious if you watch him everyday babble about it. In the reviews of customer cars he always goes soft and says nice things in front of his customers. He’s said nice things about GM vehicles, and we all know he is not fond of nor recommends their vehicles (for good reason!). Let’s not kid ourselves, as usual.
And do you happen to have long term data on that 2.4 turbo thing Toyota is putting in the Highlander and twin turbocharged 3.4 on the Tundra, LX, and Land Cruiser? Or even short term data?
how do you think those will hold up compared to a powertrain that's EV?
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Of course no one has, I just recently discovered that those new Hydra-Matics all blow up at 100k miles.
I'm yet to see any decent EV have design issues that cause failures so serious that early.
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I've watch Scotty enough to see what's criticism and what's the general idea.
I don't let any criticism feed into my existing biases,
"infrastructure might not be there" and "these shouldn't be pushed so hard" - does not mean "literal rotting piles of garbage you should throw stones at"... it means what it does.
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Anyhow, after my comment on 6:56 pm we've began going off topic, Chinese this, creative differences, etc. - do you have commentary that's not related to specifics but the idea of EVs in general? or are we settled on all points?
All these new turbo charged vehicles, or hybrids, or EVs - we don’t have any long term data on them. That’s why I am not buying them or recommending to memebrs!
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That’s why I plan to purchase a 2024 Toyota Camry with the NA V6 and regular automatic or the 2025 Lexus ES350. Hopefully it lasts me till 2040, and then we can talk EVs since by then if new ICE cars around they will be sh*t and in 2040 buying a 20 year old ICE car (going back to 2020) wont make sense anymore (at least for me).
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If my Camry or Lexus blows up or something happens to it well before 2040, go ahead and laugh at me, call me an idiot, and say you should have bought an EV.
Welp you better be quick, they're stopping production.
I doubt a 2024 Toyota will last 16 years - the 8 speed on these is trashy.
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Also you're saying
"All these new turbo charged vehicles, or hybrids, or EVs - we don’t have any long term data on them. That’s why I am not buying them or recommending to memebrs!"
Good, the new Camry launching early next year is Hybrid only - so... what will you recommend then? riding a bike?
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You can take a look on the forum and find quite a few blown Toyota 8 speeds at 100k or less, many people complain about jerking, hesitations, etc.
They're built as good as 2023-2024 cars are.
I will be recommending to members to buy used. Although when it comes to buying a brand new Toyota hybrids, their hybrids are more sound since they have been doing it for a while. But I will tell them if they get a new Toyota to not count it will last as long as the older ones.
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I take and own that same risk if I get the 2024 Camry or 2025 Lexus ES350. Thankfully I take good care of my cars and never push them when I drive. And most of miles are highway, so maybe I can beat the odds.
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After all, what else am I going to purchase ?
Personally I would not like the idea of spending 15 years in a Corolla or a Camry.
I owned a Corolla it was "mid" in all categories other than aging a bit better than the car before.
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I think it doesn't make sense to compromise just to be able to use a car for 3-4 additional years,
I'd rather buy fun cars, cars that make me happy and use them for 8-10 years before buying another car that makes even happier.
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And I can say I'm ultra happy with the 2 stylish agile small SUVs, and the plush quick and comfortable EV - yeah some boring unremarkable sedan that costs more may last a few years more, good for them.
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https://imgur.com/igaUn8W
https://imgur.com/tb6dUt1
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In a world of cars that last 10-15 years,
I can see incredibly well driving, smooth, near silent, ultra fast charging and somewhat inexpensive EVs being king.
Well, I owned a 2000 Acura Integra GSR with manual since 2005 and been happy with it. I still have it.
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The 8th Camry is no slouch and sporty and fun to drive especially with the V6. Also, I plan to look at the 2025 Lexus ES350 Fsport which also can be fun to drive. I really like the Lexus badge and styling, and may go that route. Plenty good enough for most people that want a sedan. And as we discussed before I am not interested in a CUV.
Yeah idk, I'm not against sedans - I've owned sedans and stations exclusively until about 2019.
But I don't feel like any new sedans are "worthy" - they aren't making anything even close to something like a Fluence dCi.
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I really do not want to offend you, I honestly do not - but I do think that I need to give you the counter perspective.
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But I really feel that it needs to be said that the Camry handles and drives like a boat
Burns metric tons of gas
https://imgur.com/a/BGiu3nT
And the front seats are as crammed as a MINI sub-compact.
https://imgur.com/NvNNpHu
It's really tight in the back
And I do mean REALLY tight, it's compact sized there.
https://imgur.com/a/GqTeFub
And the boot capacity of a compact.
https://imgur.com/wiO5Lgh
It managed to combine all of the downsides of a mid-sized car with all of the downsides of a sub-compact.
Other than long term reliability, I do not see anything good about that thing...
I tired to force my self to buy that but I just do not see my self using that long term, it's just 'not'...
@Dan I am also looking at the Lexus ES350 Fsport and actually prefer that over the Camry, although the price is much higher. But at least it makes me feel more special and fewer of them on the road compared to the Camry.
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As a current Acura Integra owner the new Integra Type S also intrigued me, but for longevity the Lexus ES350 Fsport is probably better. I know you are not a fan of modern Hondas.
Yeah but ES350 F Sport price's is an eye watering $47k-$49k and then they want $1,030 for a larger screen on top of that... It's pricey and not particularly practical.
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In the front it has 0.8 inches less headroom than a Corolla, just 0.4 inches more leg room, has just 0.8 cu ft. of extra boot space - but it does have significantly more shoulder and hip room, and it is 2.7 seconds quicker than a Corolla LE.
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So y'know it's a mixed bet, it's as practical as a Corolla but at 2.2 times the price...
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But it's a Lexus, practically is not the goal - so maybe it's worth it.
Posted by Dan
Ew, What?
Why does Tesla have to do with it?
Tesla is an anti-repair typical US domestic car...
I was kind of messing with you there, hence the "lol", but at the same time Tesla is the posterchild for the EV revolution. We wouldn't be talking about EVs without Tesla, like them or hate them. Starting with the Roadster in 2008 and the Model S in 2012, they showed the world that EVs were more than glorified golf carts; the Nissan Leaf while also early to come to market did not make a compelling case to switch to EVs. Then in 2017, Tesla came out with their mass market Model 3 and the rest was history. Their Model 3 and Y continue to be the best selling EVs in the world. And then let's not forget their pioneering manufacturing methods that the world is now copying, as well as their best in industry profit margins per car. Their Supercharging network is the best and most reliable in North America, and virtually every automanufacturer is switching over to the Tesla charging standard (aka NACS). Their vehicles have been around the longest and more tried and true than newer EVs coming to market (including from the Chinese). Personally, if I wanted an EV today I'd consider a Tesla, but I plan to wait a while and see what Toyota/Lexus come out with. By the time I will be in the market for an EV, it will be 2040-2044 because that's how long I plan to keep my next ICE vehicle.
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In the US Tesla has the biggest market share of EVs, and the EV others compare against. They are the benchmark, love them or hate them. Notice I said nothing about quality, relaibility, service, durability. But I do recognize what Elon and Tesla have done, and they should be commended for that! All this from a non-Tesla consumer. I also would buy a Tesla anyday over what the Chinese Communist Party is cranking out.
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Posted by Dan
Welp, consider the more likely option, the ICE cars continuing to get less and less reliable.
This trend also affects Toyota, today they will reveal a new generation Camry - if will axe non-turbo engines just like they have done it on the petrol Highlander, we might enter a different era.
That may be true, but EVs are still in their infancy. Granted Tesla has been making EVs since 2008, so they further along in EV development and true and tried methods compared to anyone else. There's examples of Teslas making it to several hundred thousand miles, although I can't tell you (or not) that the majority of Teslas get there, but certainly some do.
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Anyways, I won't touch new technoloy until it's been out for a long while. For me, I will stick with NA ICE engines meaning if I wanted a Camry 2024 MY is the last one to get or 2025 MY for the Lexus ES (if I wanted that, which I do).
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I don't care what new electrified vehicles come out. I don't plan on getting any of them. I am not interested in hybrids, nor turbo engines, nor itty-bitty 3 cylinder ones. But, that's what ICE has come to - like it or not. For me, I will have to buy those last year model years of the NA Camry/ES I just mentioned or get something used. Hopefully, whatever I get will last me till 2040, and then we can go from there. I am still young enough that I may have another 45 years to drive (if I follow my parents' pattern).
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Posted by Dan
I'd love to hear what are the practical shortcomings on an EV over a Hybrid.
I am not going to get into this with you. Nor do I need to defend myself. I don't care so much about propulsion systems as long as it meets my needs. I need a daily driver that is reliable, durable (has the potential to last more than 10 years, preferably 15+ years since I tend to keep my vehicles until the wheels fall off), can take me to work and back, go on road trips, fuel up in 5 minutes or less, be somewhat DIY-able, have aftermarket parts/support, and most mechanics can work on. For me, personally, my next car is a 2024 Toyota Camry or a 2025 Lexus ES350. I want a sedan and that checks off my boxes the most. No EV here in the US can do that, and I don't want to take a chance on a Tesla Model 3 even though some of them have gone 200,000+ miles. I also don't want to spend 30, 35, 40+ minutes charging at a station on road trips each time.
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I also go offroading in really remote places and the critera above also matters to me, plus the ability to go on difficult dirt roads. Again, no EV makes the cut for me. Rivian EVs are not proven and already have had lots of issues.
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I also plan to get a sports car in the future and there driving experience, connection with the road, engine noise, exhaust note, all those matter to me - that an EV cannot capture.
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So, ICE for me for the foreseeable future.
Posted by Dan
I do not want to enter this debate again, I think we're going into it way too often, but these concerns are not major.
I agree, no point, we are not going to change each other's minds. It is what it is. But, I am open to any method of propulsion that checks my boxes above. I am just not willing to take a chance on EVs right now since the technology is fairly new. If my Camry or ES lasts till 2040, and I need another vehicle, then we can talk.
In the past, we found that
"In the past, ..."
In the past jokes with wheels built by GM had resistive heaters.
Multiply your number 10x
No.
https://electrek.co/2020/12/03/tesla-model-3-heat-pump-comparison-results/
In near freezing weather "2019 Model 3 without the heat pump required 2,170 watts to maintain the temperature. The new 2021 Model 3, on the other hand, needed only 735 watts."
So, the Tesla model 3 needs just 135 watts more than my car - cool to know.
At that rate, the Model 3 can run it's heating for 78.6 hours.
(heat pumps are standard equipment in 2023 on almost anything)
I hope this is settled.
Now onto your claims and to clear up some misconceptions:
"Even up to 5+ kW if the vehicle is starting off very cold and the battery needs to be warmed up by a resistive heater" (source)
The key here is electric resistance heater - that's not a thing anymore.
The 4,800W figure for heating on the model 3 is at MAX heat WITHOUT a heat pump - no one drives with max heat consatly, unless they want to be fried in their Tesla.
The average EV has a 40,000 W-h battery
What?
No one except the Leaf has a battery that small, 40kwh is nothing - the short range Tesla model 3 has 45% more capacity then that.
The AAA found a 41% reduction in range
The article you linked to is clear that the Tesla model Y experienced 18% less range.
The AAA tested "2018 BMW i3s, 2018 Chevrolet Bolt, 2018 Nissan Leaf,..." - junk.
we're talking about modern cars here - not odd minis no one bought.
Study from 2022
Your own study shows "Tesla model 3 -17%", "Tesla Model S -15%", "Audi E-Tron -8%", "Tesla Model Y -15%"
These are great results!
It also includes resistive heated junk, they're about as relevant to this discussion as a 1991 Camry is.
a 15-gallon gas tank holds the equivalent of 505.5 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy. That's more than six times what our Model 3 carries fully charged
Hmmm, the average efficiency of a petrol engine is in the 30s, so about 150 kWh usable.
So in theory 3x the range of a standard range model 3 - but due to drag, transmission losses, etc. - it's less.
The EPA says a Camry has 506 miles of range, and yeah that's roughly 2.3 times the range of a model 3.
So 373 kWh (73%) of that petrol tank is wasted energy turned into air pollution - not a good thing...
But running heating at a standstill uses about 1.1-1.5L/hour (at least it did on my Ford) so in a Corolla you have 33-45 hours - that's less than a standard range Tesla model 3.
unlike in a gasoline-fueled car, where waste heat from the engine
The Tesla model 3 actually can use the electric motors to heat the cabin and battery.
If you looked into Tesla engineering ("art" according to Toyota engineers ) then you herd about the "Octo-Valve" and "Super manifold" - that system allows them to capture every little bit of waste heat from the EV motors and use it.
Here's a patent, it's incredible:
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/electric-motor-waste-heat-mode-to-heat-battery
So yeah, there's less waste heat - but every single drop of that is sent to the cabin to allow for that efficiency.
set to 72 degrees and on automatic, where the Model 3 consumed energy at a rate of 402 Wh/mile, just a tick below 17 percent more energy than the run without HVAC. At that rate of consumption, the predicted range falls to 200 miles
The same -17% less figure we saw in the previous study.
I'm happy you're settled.
Just give it up, man! No one's minds on EVs have changed. You said it before "you don't want to enter this debate again." We can talk again in 2040 when I ready for my next vehicle.
@imperator
All evidence was given.
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You calculated correctly that if your wattage would be correct they’d be “down to 1.5 hours of use” and since there’s 83.5% BEV market share in cold Norway this is just not the case.
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Next time I’m in Olso I’ll rent a model 3 standard and see for my self.
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@DayWalker
“no one’s mind about (…) have changed” - sadly, that’s the thing I feel. no matter how much truth and evidence presented it’s the biases that take hold…
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I feel we’ve really exhausted this topic, let’s help forum members instead.
don't be sad. I'll let you know when my mind requires changing. 😆
It's not going to be considerably cheap compared to new vehicle prices, because they don't want you to keep replacing the battery. So, my guess is it's not ever going to be lower than 1/3 the price of a brand new EV.
toasty bus
Fact check: False.
This is a CNG powered bus in Perugia, Italy.
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/04/21/cng-bus-fire-explosion-italy-natural-gas/
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Similarly this:
Is a regular diesel bus, not electric.
https://www.thejournal.ie/bradford-bus-fire-misleading-video-caption-facebook-group-checkpoints-6199599-Oct2023/
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And I can show countless more examples.
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Usually when people post "electric bus fires", It turns out to be regular busses after investigation - I guess the only thing that matters is the viral caption. 😉
Tesla is an anti-repair typical US domestic car...
What about the S3XY lineup, though? Is the service information available for DIYers and mechanics?
Seems like service information for the S3XY lineup is $3,000 annual.
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https://service.tesla.com/service-subscription
@daywalker pretty much double what GM charges
At least they offer it. Scotty for a long time has complained Tesla does not provide the information. But, in reality, they do - you have to pay $3,000 a year for it.
@daywalker I wonder if this means we'll start to see the info in Mitchell, Alldata, etc.
This is just a PR move - They're still charging you $,$$$ for service info on all cars made after 2012.
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I'm sure the owners of the 2,500 Roadsters ever made are happy.
Instead of going against the legacy automaker mindset, Tesla doubled down on it.
Yet this doesn't solve the issues of the hundreds of thousands of S3XY line-up owners.
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What they should do, is publish repair information, allow access to software and manuals for repair procedures and diagnostics.
The biggest non-legacy car maker publishes super in-depth complex repair information free.
https://geelyprdstorageac.blob.core.windows.net/public/NEW%20GEOMETRY%20C/FILES/2023%20Maintenance%20Manual%20NC.pdf
So does the biggest EV maker in the world, they even went as far as to publish flash images so that you can re-flash and readjust your car's software as you want.
https://github.com/BYDcar/BYDGlobalFactoryImages1
Others should honestly take note.
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Tesla meanwhile went the direction of not including a standard OBD2 port (although a standardized EV diagnostics port will be soon mandated) and went full-in on the legacy car maker idea that assemblies must be replaced in full, instead of repairing specific parts.
Is there any company that doesn't charge for service data?
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The Roadster data is incredibly detailed. There's research documents, production manufacturing techniques, flash images, etc. So, not just repair procedures and specifications... it's "how do you design, manufacture and assemble an electric car".
> "Is there any company that doesn't charge for service data?"
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yea, as per my last comment: China's biggest automaker (Geely Holdings), and world's biggest EV maker (BYD) do not.
It's almost as if they respect buyers with dignity and expect them to use, repair, and modify their cars how ever they like...
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Additionally, Others (like KIA) do not enforce copyright on their repair info, so it's freely available online. And they also offer cheap options to access it officially.
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> "The Roadster data is incredibly detailed"
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As per my last comment:
Great for the owners of the 2,500 Roadsters,
meaningless for owners of about 99.9% of their cars.
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Details about the development of an EV conversion kit they designed for a Lotus in the 2000s ain't gonna most people figure out why a Model 3 is not going into D.
And I don't see it being useful to boost the industry, most of the industry already studied Tesla technology (for example Toyota it to begin using Giga-castings) and developed much more advanced tech.
yeah there's no way I'm buying a Chinese car even with repair info. Flash images are not source code, so no, you cannot modify it. You would have to build one from scratch.
Funny how the cheapest, crappiest cars offer their info. Almost as if they're worthless without it.
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If you repaired Teslas, you could make a make a lot of money doing it. Probably justifies the cost of the info.
> "yeah there's no way I'm buying a Chinese car even with repair info"
I didn't offer / advise you to purchase any.
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> "Funny how the (...) Almost as if (...)."
Nope, some of the best sellers from China in the west do not.
Chinese legacy car makers like MG (SAIC) and ORA (GMW) do not offer free repair info.
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The difference in the field is between legacy car makers and new-age car makers.
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And when I say "best sellers" I mean it.
For the first time the a Chinese EV (MG4) overtook the Model Y by sales in the UK.
It wasn't a one time thing, it has been like that all year (source)
(Big deal, there 1 in 6 new cars are EV with >50% YoY growth)
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It's funny how Elon was talking about legacy automakers impending "Kodak moment" ,
when Tesla is now beginning to experience their own "Kodak moment".
They do not have much to compete with Chinese export market offerings.
> "the cheapest, crappiest cars"
I am afraid you're missing the point.
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In 2023 people buy Chinese cars because they're wonderfully premium and well laid out.
As AP put it "Europe is looking to fight the flood of Chinese electric vehicles. But Europeans love them" [1] and that's true.
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I wouldn't call them "cheapest", Export market Chinese EVs are priced like western ICE cars, I wouldn't call a RAV4 or a Corolla Cross "cheapest" - they're all currently fighting the same $25k-up range.
They're taking them head-on and they're growing and still selling quite well and growing fast.
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Personally, you know I was ultra skeptic of Chinese cars and EVs - but the reality really didn't match the perception I had in my head.
Even as someone who owned mainly Volvos, I can say I was devastated by how comfortable and well driving these export market cars are.
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Honestly, the fact they're designed by the best in the industry shows.
(BYD's overseas cars were designed by former chief of Lamborghini, Geely from Bentley, Avatr from BMW, Chery hired their stylist from BMW - all of that designed is mated with a very traditional simple drivetrain)
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[1] https://apnews.com/article/electric-vehicles-china-subsidies-europe-investigation-4f00df1c7588ca375efebb89a2b83783
Rowan Atkinson has been driving EV's for 18 years
There were some attempts in the 1970s. Might be fun to play around with one as a hobby if any have survived. Back then there was a shop not far from where I lived trying to sell these and had one sitting out front:
@chucktobias now there's a decent looking EV. Not like this abomination.
@imperator, yeah that "cybertruck" looks like something out of a drug-induced nightmare.
There was an article in "Hemmings Classic Car" magazine several years ago about those AMC Hornet based electric cars. As I recall they were converted by a small company in MIchigan and used cobalt-lead batteries that yielded about 100 mile range and 80 mph maximum speed and a full charge took 45 minutes. Not many were sold and I'd be surprised if any were actually still around but maybe one or two are hidden away in barns or sheds somewhere.
@ChuckTobias I wonder what's a decent looking car in your opinion?
I think we might have wildly different tastes, personally I like a lot of these new age designs...
@dan - That's obviously a subjective matter, one of personal taste. I really don't care for the design of most new vehicles, the cybertruck being a very extreme example. However I grew up in the tailfin era which might have skewed my preferences a little bit. (To my eyes the AMC Hornet was a nice clean design.)