I hope cloning doesn't include Tesla's reliability

@g-t I don't know which are worse, Teslas or Chinese cars. Probably Chinese cars.

Right about what?
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This article talks about how the legacy automakers are whining about EVs and their inability to sell the crap they make.
In reality EV sales jumped 50 percent in Q3 in the US.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/tesla-is-losing-market-share-as-ev-adoption-grows-and-prices-fall/
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Reading the article companies like GM, Daimler (horrible corporations, we can both agree they have been absolutely incapable of designing a decent vehicle in the past deacde) are admitting that to them the EV market has been a "pretty brutal space".
Which does go along with my, and some others' predictions that they will not survive switching over to EV vehicles as these manufactures are inept.
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Reading further into that WSJ article (a questionable news source), they mention that the slowing demand is due to "Higher interest rates are making them more unaffordable for many buyers" - this seems to be the only real explanation they have, and yet this is true for every premium car.
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And as far as the claims about inventory, it's true of any car.
"YTD US inventory levels are up 14% from 2022 and volume has climbed to 1.9 million units. Days' supply remains suppressed at 36 but has risen from 28 days a year ago."
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Anyhow, reading through the article I also see that GM and Honda have given up on a sub-30k EV. This is quite funny considering that just 10 days ago STELLANTIS corporation went all in and launched a new super affordable EV.
https://www.media.stellantis.com/em-en/citroen/press/citroen-reveals-the-all-new-e-c3-the-first-european-affordable-electric-car
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The Citroen Ë-C3 standard range set to begin deliveries cost just $24,660,
And additionally there will be a short range version for $21,150.
https://youtu.be/N_0U2lN9fzc
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This car is series is likely coming to the USA under a different brand under the STELLANTIS umbrella.
(STELLANTIS announced that this car will get at least 7 sister models, so far they only revealed 3)
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Article TLDR:
1. Legacy car companies admit they're obsolete and can not compete in the new energy field.
2. Pricy car's sales slow and inventories keep building up as interest rate remains high.

Roughly 1 out of new 13 cars sold in the US are EVs.
Last year, this number was roughly 1 out of every 17 new cars sold.
This is solid growth.
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Also Geely’s Volvo brand had over 650% increase in EV sales in the US -

which proves what I’ve been saying, when they will sell Geely EVs in the US, they will be bought up even without any US gov incentives.
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Meanwhile those CEOs complaining about EVs ain’t showing much growth,

Hardly anyone is buying Volvo’s in the US.
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I live in Southern California and hardly see any Volvos on the road, let alone a Volvo EV. Plenty of Teslas, however.

If you look at the numbers, last month, Volvo sold 10,946 cars in the US (65% growth)
For reference, during the same period Mazda sold 28,031 cars in the US (17.9% growth).
- So this niche luxury brand is growing fast and now has about 40% of the sales of a major non luxury brand.
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Geely expects Volvo to grow through EV sales, but not yet.
Their first Sustainable Experience car for the US market will only ship in late 2024
So they expect to become an even more major player in 2025
(maybe by then they will overtake Mazda)
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But Volvo is just one company with particularly insane growth.
Hyundai, Mercedes, Nissan all also experianced over 200% growth in the EV space.
Tesla also faired decently, 419,074 cars delivered in Q3 2023 - 29% compared to Q3 2022.
The overall 50% growth is industry wide.

Volvo sales will hit a plateau in the US just like Tesla will. There’s only so many EV early adopters and people excited about EVs they can attract. It becomes much more difficult to translate into sales once you move beyond that and hit more of the mainstream population here in the US, especially as you move AWAY from the Coastal states (where you have more EV-friendly buyers).

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You may say otherwise for the rest of the world, but I don’t care.  I live here in the US and am only concerned about this market.

Welp, I am talking about your market and:
Tesla is on track to out sell Ford, and the Chevy brand next year,
Over 400,000 cars in Q3 - this is as mainstream as it gets.
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The Tesla model Y outsold the Camry, CR-V and is the 5th best seller in 2023.
The Tesla model 3 outsold the Corolla, Accord, and Civic.
What's more mainstream than that?
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With such sales, it's clear they have moved beyond early adopters and enthusiasts.
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Y'know, calling the 5th best selling car in the US - "non mainstream" is odd...

Dan, the 400,000+ in Q3 is for the whole world! In the US, it’s much less than that - come on, man, you are smarter than that. Remember, their forecast is 1.8 million sales by end of 2023 globally, which comes out to about 450,000 vehicles on average per quarter, again globally.
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In the US, they still lag the Big Three and Toyota in total number of vehicles sold. There’s just no getting around that.
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So far in 2023, they have sold less Model Y’s than RAV4’s:
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https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/
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Keep in mind, too, demand for Teslas are dropping in the US which is why the company resorted to many price drops this year (in order to boost demand). But even with those price drops, Tesla sold less vehicles in Q3 2023 than analysts expected, so it was disappointing for them.
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And keep in mind if it wasn’t for Biden’s IRA sales of EVs would be much lower.  His administration artificially propped up sales with the $7,500 credit rather than let the market decide.  Hopefully, when President Trump resumes office in 2025 he will rescind the IRA.

Yes, in the US, they sold YTD 458,000 Model 3 and model Ys.
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As far as the RAV4 being the only non-Truck to outsell the Model Y, it is true.
Yet, how come a "non mainstream car" outsold all other non-Trucks except one?
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Tesla blamed not reaching some analysts expectations sales on "planned downtime to upgrade its factories." Which can make sense as the model 3 went through a facelift and the Cybertruck entering production with deliveries slated for November 30th.
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A thing that needs to be cleared up is EV pricing being inflated by US policy not reduced!
The US has HUGE import taxes on foreign EVs and HUGE subsidies for locally produced ones.
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So mainstream foreign EVs pay 27.5% in tax and have to compete with cars that get 7 grand in tax rebates.
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The Hyundai iONIQ 5 (built in Korea) is a LOW ~30s car inflated by tariffs to over $40k,
if it would enjoy the same rebates, (it never will) it would be in the mid-20s.
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The Volvo EX30 (built in China) is around ~$25k inflated by tariffs to $35k,
if it would enjoy the same rebates, (it never will) it would be in the high-10s.
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This situation is pretty ridiculous and is the main barrier to price reduction.
This economic policy (tariffs and rebates) do not make EVs cheaper,
it inflates their price significantly - for now.
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It's really just a measure to keep US legacy automakers afloat.
(perhaps rightfully so, even with the prices of import EVs being inflated by ~$17k, import EVs still manage to offer similar values to US-made cars)
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But this may change,
as Chinese automakers are seeking to avoid this tax by building plants in Mexico.
https://insideevs.com/news/691889/china-evs-mexico-motor-trend/

The number you gave for Year to Date Tesla Sales in US combines their vehicles. Tesla does not give out the individual car breakdowns, conveniently. Anyways, for Model Year to Date Toyota has sold 165,693 Corolla’s, 217,975 Camry’s, 302,831 RAV4’s, and 138,178 Highlanders. And I will stop there: add those 4 models’ numbers up and it easily trumps Tesla’s. And again, Teslas are only affordable now because of all their price cuts this year to boost weakening demand as well as the $7,500 credit from the IRA.  BTW, all those price cuts have hurt Tesla vehicles resale values.

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Teslas are rolling piles of that won’t hold up long. Even your beloved Consumer Reports does not give favorable reliability ratings for Teslas. They give Model 3 average reliability and it’s the only Tesla they recommend. They don’t recommend the Y, S, or X. I only bring up Consumer Reports because you cited it numerous times in the past for ratings.
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Once the Republicans control the Executive and Legislative branches of government in the near future they will hopefully eliminate the IRA tax incentives and get folks off the EV bandwagon.
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Even your boss Scotty is wholly against EVs.

Hi, Daywalker, as far as Toyota's abundance of models - is there a point to it?
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You said Teslas are not mainstream, I pointed out they are very much mainstream.
With the crossover SUV outselling all by 1 competitor (in the crossover segment),
and the sedan being outsold only by 1 competitor (in the sedan segment).
This does make them, and EVs, very much mainstream.
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Generally, I predict the next big shift in the US EV market to happen in 2025.
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In 2025 (as early as January), many foreign EV auto factories will begin producing modern EVs in the US - thus negating the 27.5% tax imposted on them and drastically lowering prices over 2025.
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Assuming avoiding the 27.5% tax will allow them to reduce the prices by just 20% (considering the additional expenses of manufacturing in the US) , prices can be reduced by around $5k-$10k.
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The fact the import tax will be no more, pretty much will overcome the primary barrier to EV affordability in the US.
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> "Once the Republicans control the Executive and Legislative branches of government in the near future"
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We will see, I can see why you make this prediction - yet I'm not sure on the accuracy.
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As I see it,
The future of the automotive industry will be decided next year by Brussels.
At some point during the year 2024, the EU will publish the results of their probe into the Chinese EV industry - From there, either they will have to decide if they're imposting tariffs on import cars or not.
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We do have some early indications in that space, as GWM's reaction to the probe was the decision to set up an EU factory, and Stellantis' was purchasing a large stake in Chinese EV maker LeapMotor.
In other words - European and Chinese automakers seem to set up connections that would allow them to operate in each others markets even in case of a trade war.
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If the EU decides to impose said tariffs - China is likely to react similarly probably perhaps damaging existing joint ventures and then we will enter a new era where each region (US, EU, China) will have their isolated car industry, unlike the current system where the industry is quite global.

Another video
https://youtu.be/O5I7ebX3uJk?si=7_kUvCOjdiN5eGo3

what kind of coolant do you need to cool your engine to near absolute zero?

Liquid helium, of course!

{pear}:nerd:

There are huge lots of BYD cars just sitting around to inflate sales numbers. The Chinese love faking stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SEfwoqKRU8

@mmj
Yea, I have no doubt that smaller cheaper less successful internal market cars may have trouble selling in the current economic climate,
But what they can not fake is registrations abroad:
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Abroad BYD's siltation seems to be quite good:
- BYD is in a position were most of their cars are in super high demand, a BYD ATTO3 gets sold where I live in moments, there are huge waiting lists and they're #1 in sales of any vehicle type - if they had those laying around they'd just sell them here.
- Same for MG, in Europe they're absolutely killing it - despite their falling sales in China they're sky rocketing in Europe.

(They're also in a position where an MG4 that sitting in a lot would be sold almost insatiately)

So it really doesn't seem like they have an issue selling their cars.
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ALSO,
The cost of faking deliveries for an established car makers is very high -
A typical EV costs at least $20k just to produce per unit.
So faking just 10% of deliveries would cost $2.6 BILLION just in H1 '23
BYD is a public company their H1 earnings were $1.50 billion,
These costs are just too high for a public company to fake.
(and no gov wouldn't've be able to inflate numbers that much sustainably)
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Again, I want to say that there's no doubt that some smaller companies using investor capital can do that,
And no doubt that there are lots of unsold vehicles (on the internal market with cheap cars)
But - I doubt that a major brand such as Geely or BYD would be able to afford inflating their numbers regardless of how much subsidies they're able to get out of it this way as the associated costs are very high (this isn't a $500 bicycle bough by a startup using investor capital after all)
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And I really see why sales could be strong for Chinese car makers,
I recently was looking into some legacy car makers and I do not know what they're even doing.
For example, a Ford lightning has a 131 kwh battery but it can only use 98 kwh (under 75%)
A BYD ATTO3 has a 64 kwh battery of which 60kwh are usable (93% utilization, 18% delta)
Basically in a Ford you're paying about ~$5,000 for batteries that are flat out unused - that's insanely bad...
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And the lightning is a similar shape to a regular F-seires, only a 4% lower coefficient of drag, but according to their CEO, "can engineer an extra 75 miles of EV range in next-generation F-150 Lightning pickup trucks from better aerodynamics alone" - so not only are they not able to use 25% of their battery the aerodynamics are also crap.
Legacy car makers current generation products are offensively bad...
The Chinese EVs feel almost mature, whatever Ford and others are doing really does not...
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To get the full picture, we'll have to wait for the:
- EU report on Chinese car maker government subsidies (looking at MG, BYD, Geely)
- BYD's euro market launch in Q4 2023, but we'll probably only see results in H2 2024.
So I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

and yet those are fields of crappy Geelys and BYDs , and nobody wants them

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0on2ZG9CDM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyiRVo_U8iQ

@mmj
Those videos are showing real images but not the real data,
There's a good video from a person that went to explore then and found that they're used cars from bankrupt businesses who are not building cars.
Here's an article, from TheDrive - who are a legitimate news source.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/the-real-story-of-that-chinese-ev-graveyard-isnt-what-you-were-told
https://youtu.be/uD8qqEx4G18?si=IT-zW2VW5tUDtfvc

Even the 2nd video slowly admits these are from failed ride sharing companies.

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And the BYD situation is just "BYD inventory flooded, 600 cars waiting to be processed", and from what I could gather those are previous generation cars waiting to be shipped and sold at discounts. 

(As the BYD e3 update added necessary stuff like a heat pump, 100kms more range, and finally decent power - so the old ones are just undesirable as a new car)

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Doing research I found cases in which inflation happened but they're not too widespread (small companies producing tiny things to pull in investor money, like Kandi), as again, a public company can not afford it no matter the subsidy sizes and that generally they're in demands.

Oh please, Dan. As if we didn't know the Chinese are masters of deception.
We already had to deport one "Princess of Huawei" for conspiracy and fraud.
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On their website "The Drive" describes itself as "influencer marketing" and " editorially-driven" (opinion). That's all I need to know.
Bottom line: "Biggest selling electric car brand" ... but where are the cars? Not on the road.
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China Daily (local media): " The plants assemble poor-quality vehicles and sell them to their own car rental companies, which have no working fleets, but exist only to obtain the subsidies."
A pure electric car buyer in Guangzhou, for instance, is eligible for up to 117,000 yuan (16,300 USD) in subsidies from the national and city governments, while buyers in Shanghai can obtain up to 114,000 yuan from central, municipal and district governments. The buyer of a pure electric bus would receive up to 300,000 yuan as a national subsidy.
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It's no secret. The fraud is so bad the Chinese government had to launch an investigative probe.
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Yale Zhang (general manager of Automotive Foresight (Shanghai) Co.)
- "there is subsidy fraud in many small cities, mainly covering electric buses and commercial vehicles."
- "There are a large number of small vehicle makers who obtain government manufacturing permits, then they sell the permits to even smaller plants, who are only concerned with the subsidies," Zhang said."
- "some permit holders are simply selling batteries to small plants, without manufacturing working vehicles."
- "there's no specific punitive measures on those who fail to meet standards on quality or safety."
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It's the same scam as in the United States:
Chen Qingtai (vice-director of the China Development Research Center of the State Council):
- "The present sales volume is driven by government policies, rather than the market. The sales number does not indicate that Chinese pure electric vehicle makers have competent technologies.".
" The nation's NEV makers still don't have the competence to rival international companies"
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Nielson (data & analytics) - Chinese branch report:
Chinese people don't want NEVs for the same reasons the rest of the world doesn't ... "too expensive" and "immature"

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It's all a fake facade. Just like their fireworks and drone displays. Nothing new for China.
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Biden is pushing ahead hard with BILLIONS more dollars in subsidies which will serve to make America's motorist more dependent on China than ever before. That's a scary thought. Not only do they already make everything, but now we won't be able to get around without them. What if things get shaky with China? Who is going to call the shots?
We already know China is sending us millions of phones and TV's with malware on them. Now imagine millions of internet connected cars.

Ford vehicles being a fire hazard is nothing new.
Even in 2018, the chance of a Ford F-250/350 catching fire was 149% of the worst Kia.
Same goes for older model years.
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DATA: "Noncrash fire losses - Prepared by HLDI for NHTSA"
2018 report:
https://www.iihs.org/media/c93b98d8-6a7d-44a1-810e-4468ec539e05/uIu4tg/HLDI%20Research/Fire%20losses/HLDI_FireLosses_1218.pdf
2016 report:
https://www.iihs.org/media/f8be29ed-e632-4d0d-83ee-f29ad385f4fe/NMKYyg/HLDI%20Research/Fire%20losses/HLDI_FireLosses_0417.pdf

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A big part of it is media sensationalism - covering up the big faults of legacy domestic brands and making every recall sound like it's the most severe safety fault ever known to man.

@dan something doesn't seem right about those stats. Ford & GM pickups are the highest selling vehicle models in the US. The first chart seems to show there are twice as many insured Jeep Wranglers as all the F-series combined.

@mmj Hi,
The first table ONLY displays the top ten SUB-types (specific combination of body styles and configurations) and NOT "all the F-series combined" - the information on the rest of the entire F-series lineup is in the 2nd table.
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In the 2nd table you can see 537,649 insurance years on the F-150 SuperCrew 4WD, 161,923 on the F-150 SuperCrew, 108,908 on the F-150 SuperCab 4WD, etc. (With overall poor results, ANY F-series product is at least 36% more likely to burst into flames than a Corolla or a Civic)
Here you can clearly see IIHS-HLDI's members huge "exposure" to F-series products does seem to reflect their popularity on the US market.

manufacturers are lying about their cars. Say it aint so!

Getting only half of an EV’s claimed range makes it almost useless for road trips, doesn’t it? Here, we are talking about a 350+ Tesla getting <200 mile range.
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I know several Tesla owners who own Model 3 and Y and can corroborate they get 100 mile less than the advertised range. So their Teslas really only get in the low 200s, which is still plenty for my everyday commute (admittedly) but for road trips not so much. Plus, they paid for the claimed 300+ range.
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On the flip side, I have seen reports that other EV makers (that’s NOT named Tesla) are more conservative with their range claims and the owners end up getting actually more. I like that much better! And perhaps those are the EVs to get in the future.

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Anyways, I have seen enough from Tesla (who is the top EV seller in California and in the US and amongst the top in the world) to avoid them like the plague.

it probably varies, right? There are a lot of different factors that go into EV range. The people who are actually getting half are probably very few. You also have to take into account how the media likes to sensationalize everything, and leave out important context. But yeah, I would expect it to be like EPA fuel economy ratings, VW dieselgate, or even the HP/torque specs that manufacturers publish.

Well, it doesn’t help Tesla is a shady company and the guy running the company is a nut job. And like I said I know several people with Teslas who got actual range a lot less than claimed. These “300+ mile” range Teslas are $50,000+. Who wants to pay that much and get only low 200-ish? Sure, ICE mpg will be less than EPA but even alot of those legitimately get more than 300 mile range. Some easily get >400 mile range and more!
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Anyways, I expect other manufacturers to build better EVs than Tesla. If someone wants a EV, those are the ones to research and consider. Screw Tesla.
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EV range is volatile and more sensitive than ICE due to terrain, temperatures, speed/aero, having accessories on inside the EV, etc.. Overtime, once they figure out the optimal battery chemistry and they keep making it better I am sure this will be behind us.
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Anyways, these are the growing pains of new technology and early adopters have to expect it.

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Probably best to lease these things.

I think Elon is just a normal guy with human quirks like most people. He's very smart, but very awkward socially which doesn't mix well with the constant hawk-like media attention. His image gets twisted a lot. He also tweets too much for his own good.

Leasing is expensive. It might be smarter to just drive an EV, and set up a fund using the money you save on fuel to eventually go towards a battery.

. @mmj I don't think it's the manufacturers lying.
Perhaps a case of "confirmation bias" as the article REBUTED the claims of "half the miles" it self!
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It clearly states:
- "Recurrent found that Tesla’s four models almost always calculated that they could travel more than 90% of their advertised EPA range estimates regardless of external temperatures."
- "The research found that, on average, the cars fell short of their advertised ranges by 12.5% in highway driving"

So they make it sound inserting only to then come clear and say that the claims that they stated previously are unbased.

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Although Reuters does like to do that from time to time, they love cheap and dirty sensationalism.

They have a title that reads "Failed tests and false advertising" and when you read what they're on about they mean "the audits resulted in Tesla being required to lower all the cars’ estimated ranges by an average of 3%." - what a sensationalist title for an article about... laterally nothing.

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Honestly? It's possible to make any car underperform, I have no doubt I can take a Corolla down to 10mpg for example and complain about its range - and I'd have as much of a basis to complain as that random guy in the 2nd article.
Reminds me of how Top Gear managed to test a Prius in such a way that in had worse fuel millage than a BMW M-series car.
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The article however does make the point that in freezing temps older technology EVs have lower range, according to studies it's by just 17% on newer model years of the Tesla model 3.
Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/electric-vehicle-cold-range-1.6738892
the EVs that do have the issue,
like absolute garbage GM products do so because of a RESISTIVE battery heating system (like early 2000s junk)
Source: https://www.gm-volt.com/threads/bolt-ev-a-resistive-element-or-heat-pump.260073/
And in the case of some other very specific cars like the Toyota bz4x, It's clear why Toyota has decided it needs BYD's tech.
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For the most accurate results, the Norwegian Automobile Association has tested the cars in their cold winter climate.
And they have discovered that the Tesla model Y long range only droped by 11% of the WLTP estimate, the EV6 by 11.5% and many others have performed well.
Notably some of the best performers are BYD with the best car in the test (BYD Tang) dropping by just 10%
https://nye.naf.no/elbil/bruke-elbil/test-rekkevidde-vinter-2022
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If the claims of the original article would be true, they wouldn't be the best selling cars in some of the coldest countries.
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In regular weather, looking at performance tests, all expect one (the Skoda Enyaq) performed within 10% of spec on the highway at 65 mph on hilly terrain with climate control in auto set to 22C
https://www.icar.co.il/%D7%A8%D7%9B%D7%91_%D7%97%D7%A9%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%99/%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%97%D7%9F_%D7%94%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%95%D7%90%D7%AA%D7%99:_%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%91%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%AA_%D7%94%D7%98%D7%95%D7%95%D7%97_%D7%A9%D7%9C_%D7%94%D7%A8%D7%9B%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9D_%D7%94%D7%97%D7%A9%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9D/
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So the claims of that guy from the second article seem to crap, good late model EVs perform well.
Otherwise Sweden, The Netherlands, etc. wouldn't be flooded with them.

thanks for looking into it @dan. I was too lazy to do it. 😆

union leaders need new yachts

Tesla and BYD (Chinese car company) are the only ones making a profit on every EV they sell.  Everyone else is losing money on every EV sold.

@daywalker Respectfully, why is “everyone else losing money on every EV sold”?

Resale value of EVs is terrible, so buying new doesn’t make sense.

The Bimmer driver got out and pushed his car. Admire his competitive spirit for sure!

I thought you weren't supposed to put water on lithium fires.

They were busy showcasing their new tool before someone noticed they'd used 11,000 gallons of water.

these engines are part of an ongoing lawsuit which seems to keep growing to more and more vehicles.
And they're practically brand new, so it's not like we can wave our hands and say it's due to bad maintenance this time.
http://www.carcomplaints.com/news/2021/gm-lifter-recall-class-action-lawsuit.shtml

Gen V 6.2L L86 engine

(direct injected)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxFFTHbJQ7Y

Goodies from the "Party Basket" 😆 ...

(yes that was a piston)

good thing we switched to paper straws in N.America. :silly:

it's behind a paywall, and there's no way I'm giving the WSJ any of my money.

VW should forget about assembly. They need to fix their design and manufacturing quality, cuz it aint pretty.