Hello,
Our family bought a new 2011 Toyota Sienna back in fall of 2010. Currently has about 197,000 miles. Just recently had the tires and brakes replaced and flushed the transmission fluid. This vehicle has been super reliable. Haven't done anything except routine maintenance (oil and filter, air filter, wiper blades, tires, brakes, rotors), everything else is original. We put about 12,000 miles per year on it. Question is since this Sienna has been so reliable when it eventually wears out would it make sense to buy the latest version of that generation (2020) vs a new hybrid? Who knows maybe we get another 100,000 miles out of the current 2011 and at that point all there will be left for low mileage used will be hybrids?
Keep doing what you been doing, and worry about that bridge when you come to it. Personally, I would try to find another Sienna of your generation (when the time comes) assuming they have been well maintained by the previous owner(s) and mileage is not too high.
With the amount of mileage you drive, I am 50/50 on hybrid or not. If you drove significantly less, I would say to just get the gas Sienna. With that said, This is how I would go about the decision, when it comes time.
I would research the current generation and previous generation Camry hybrid, and see how long the powertrain, specifically the hybrid battery goes before needing a replacement. The Camry hybrid powertrain uses the same technology as the Sienna.
I would also do the math on the naturally aspirated Sienna versus hybrid Sienna, with respect to the potential gas savings and battery replacement down the line.
If batteries are failing around 250,000+ miles on average, I may bet on the hybrid Sienna. If batteries are failing just after 150,000 miles, I might opt for the gasoline only version.
