Background: This market is really making it hard to buy used and up to this point I had considered buying a used Lexus GS350 Fsport (2017-2020 model years). This is a RWD vehicle that is no longer made (2020 was final model year). It has the 3.5L V6 engine (2GR-FKS) mated to an 8-speed automatic transmission AA81E (which is tried and true). It’s somewhat of a “driver’s vehicle” which is my preference.
Due to the current market, the used GS350 Fsport prices are insanely high and for $5,000 more I can buy a brand new ES350. The ES vehicle is FWD platform (unlike the GS350) and based on the Camry so long term cost of ownership “should” be less than the GS350. It also has a 3.5L V6 (2GR-FKS) but a different 8-speed automatic (same one as in the Toyota Camry and therefore fairly new and unproven).
I plan to keep my next purchase for at least 300,000 miles (15-20 years).
Question: Which one should I get?
Also adding @Dan to the discussion.
I will end up going with the all-new ES350. Total cost of ownership will be less in the long run, plus it is already a fantastic vehicle that checks all my boxes. Most people will be happy with the ES.
For others that might be interested in this new generation ES, see video below by a Toyota Master Mechanic:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-ngrasTQGIQ
Get the brand new Lexus. The GS series are expensive in repairs when you put miles on them.
8-speed automatic transmission AA81E (which is tried and true).
I'm not too sure about these, so here's what I found online.
The AA81E seems to be very similar if not identical to the AA80E, both of these are called TL-80SN
Sources I found acetate say this transmission lasts 250k km (150k miles), a lot of (non-english) websites say it lasts less, 200k km (125k miles) before the first rebuild...
The only not-uncommon car that has this transmission is the Lexus LX570 / LandCruiser with the 3UR engine - and looking through forms there the only thing I found is people praising how it shifts but not much info on reliability.
I'd sat that the 250k km estimate is correct, 150k miles seems to be the lifespan that all new Toyotas aim for.
This might be wrong, I've done a lot of research but can't find any definitive opinions on it - I'd love more info.
a different 8-speed automatic (same one as in the Toyota Camry and therefore fairly new and unproven)
I've seen it described as an "upgraded TF-80SC" which is an Aisin transmission developed for Volvo in the early 2000s. It wasn't really known for lasting all that long...
The U880/UA80... is the same age as the AA81E variant, it has been installed on the Lexus RX for like 9 years, and the entire Peugeot-Citroen and Volvo lineups have been using these for at least 5-7 years.
And it seems to have a surging issue ( https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2020/MC-10179701-9999.pdf), and quality is all around low with manufacturing defects ( https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2021/MC-10188916-9999.pdf), and there have been plenty more issues like that on the Highlander and Camry variants - Toyota isn't nice to costumers so no warranty extension, if your one is affected and it doesn't pop-up during the warranty period, they're not willing to own up to their mistakes.
I've done research, a Russian source claims "This transmission is widely considered to be best in class, it can go for 90k-125k miles before its first issues". not great! but not terribly bad, kind of average.
Genrally,
In the case of both of these, 300k miles is optimistic - I think 150k/12 years is what I'd expect to get reliably with good maintenance. I see people saying that 200k is doable on the FWD/AWD 8 speed, and that what Volvo claims it'll last.
Personally, I think the ES is the best option - it's a fancy Camry, people are going to know how to fix and maintain these.
Go for the new 2023 Lexus ES350.
It’s somewhat of a “driver’s vehicle” which is my preference.
Which one feels better to drive, considering that you intend to hold onto it for decades?
If the new ES lives up to your expectations, then why pay inflated used car prices for a used GS?
I guess test drive them both extensively, over your intended terrain since RWD sedans tend to have superior handling.
And now the most important question, which one do you really want?
All the best!
Before the pandemic and the crazy inflated market, the GS350 on the used car market could have been purchased for $15-20k below a new ES350. But now it’s $5k or less - less appealing now.
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Ideally, I’d want the GS over the ES, but not at the inflated used prices. The ES is no slouch and will be plenty fine for me; plus it has a better infotainment and for 2022 they introduced touchpad.
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Long term the ES (being a glorified Camry) will have lower cost of maintenance which is always nice.
Posted by: @daywalker
Ideally, I’d want the GS over the ES, but not at the inflated used prices.
Then keep looking, I guess. Unless you’re in a hurry to get a car.