Hey Scotty,
If there is a massive shift toward electric cars in the next decade (which many signs are pointing to) how do you think the big American car companies are going to handle the transition? Their manufacturing focus is around combustion engines and associated drive-trains, whereas electric only companies (like Tesla) are setup to build electric vehicles without all the internal combustion baggage. Won't the big auto companies be at a disadvantage needing to retool all their current manufacturing to electric based cars? Will they survive without more bailouts?
Have a great day!
Warren
Chrysler is part of a huge corporation called Stellantis (Peugeot, Citroen, DS, Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge, RAM, Fiat, Abarth, Lancia, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, Vauxhall, ...). Although Stellantis's American brands haven't doesn't seem to be focused on electrification, they European branch it.
Stellantis' huge electric lineup is huge, but IMO the ones that standout are the Opel Mokka-E and DS 3 CrossBack E-Tense (The mass market models are the Peugeots like the e-208)
I'm sure that when they'll have to shift to electric, that they won't have much trouble just utilizing the technology and know-how they have acquired in recent years on the European market.
Ford and GM both are currently making electric vehicles, while it's definitely not on the same scale as Stellantis, they already have the technology that's needed to make the transition. The Chevrolet Bolt, and the Ford Mustang Mach-E are (IMO) both technologically not far behind Tesla.
Although they aren't really going head to head with Tesla, I'm sure it's a similar to story to how the (Volvo built) PoleStar 2 compares to the Telsa Model 3 - a bit behind, but not far.
I do not think transition to electric will have much impact on domestic car makers at all.
The "huge shift" may well fizzle out when electric cars wind up in the hands of regular car buyers rather than gadget freaks and greenies and all of the disadvantages can no longer be whitewashed. Expect more bankruptcies and bailouts in the future among car companies that go full electric.
I mean… In many parts of the world soon all cars will be required to be either hybrid or fully electric quite soon.
In much of Europe and where I live it’s hard to find a car that isn’t a hybrid, some manufacturers don’t even sell petrols - thanks to the 100% tax on petrols and “”””only”””” 25% tax on EVs and Hybrids (that’s where I live, in other places the taxes aren’t that insane, but very high taxes on petrols and purposefully harsh emissions tests (requiring a car to be tested over 15k miles just to get emissions data - as if the previous lab tests weren’t already bad enough) are being put in place across Europe)
Somehow it still works out for the **** in office, the average age of a car is still under 7 years…
Any place where driving patterns are like they are in the U.S., with people routinely driving long distances, electric cars are not going to work out very well. (That's without even getting into the problems of the electrical infrastructure for charging them.) Hybrids are another matter. Too expensive, too complicated, and deteriorate faster as they get old but they don't otherwise suffer from many of the practical problems that fully electric vehicles bring to the table.
The problem is really government. None of this is being driven by consumer demand. Car buyers didn't en masse wake up one day and decide they wanted electric cars. Unfortunately if something does not change, the U.S. will be going down the same rathole as Europe, albeit more slowly. However, getting into a deep discussion on the subject of out-of-control governments is beyond the scope of this forum.
@chucktobias
Well, if the market would be a free market there is no doubt hybrids and EVs would be unpopular - but the government manipulates consumer demand.
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Where I live Hybrids were extremely popular even before there were any incentives because gas is $7.5 a gallon (67% of that price is sales and other direct tax, realistically about 80% ±10% or that is indirect tax)
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So when a Kia Niro can return 50mpg (the one I drove did 65mpg average, but let's assume a worse case scenario) and costs just a bit more (due to one of them being taxes 115% and the other "only" 25%) then a Corolla that returns only 35 mpg (assuming a best case scenario, my E150 MMT corolla does 29mpg),
that's, worst case scenario, a $6,000 saving over only 100k miles, from my experience that's wayyyyyyyy more - IMO including "safety benefits" and "green tax befits" it ends up being even even possibly twice that.
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The difference between the average car travel where I live and the US is about 3.5k miles yearly - not negligible but not that significant when it come to what people end up buying.
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I'm at that point where I'm considering either getting a Yaris Cross or a Nissan Leaf (or possibly even a MG ZS EV) because even if it lasts me only 120k miles - that's a whole $3k saved in not having to do CVT fluid changes, about $4k saved in maintenance, assuming 35mpg over 120k miles, meaning , another $20k in gas - meaning that savings from having an EV are about $30k... that's about what it costs to buy...)
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And I see a similar pattern in the US, I have no reason to doubt that over the next 20 years - by just using market manipulation, this will be a world wide thing.
It's horrible.
It's really bad. Where the cost calculation gets different is if you keep a car for 10, 15, 20 years or more. It is likely that by the time it is 10+ years old an electric car will be scrap due to the cost of the failed battery and you'll have to buy another car. Even if you don't keep a car that long, you'll lose at tradein time since the value of an old electric car with a worn battery pack would be virtually nil.
On the other hand, a gasoline car that is well designed and well-maintained can last 20 years or more and hundreds of thousands of miles and can retain resale value. Also I don't know how it is in Europe but in the U.S. we tend to have multi-car households where if there are kids that are driving age there might well be 3, 4, 5, or more vehicles. Now to go electric you're talking about multiple charging stations at home with enough electricity to feed them to meet the "conveniently charge overnight at home" mantra of the electric car fanboys. It doesn't scale well. The economics for long-term ownership and multi-vehicle ownership are terrible. We're being force-fed a load of BS. (I won't be going along with it even if it becomes more expensive to drive my old gas-powered beaters than to buy a new electric car - I'll stick with my old beaters.)
Over 10, 15 or 20 years, holding onto the same petrol cars comes out to what it costs to replace an EV every 100k miles or so (where I live)
With the kind of taxes around where I live, getting a well built petrol like a Camry (cause the Corolla and the Civic have weak CVTs) ends up costing twice the price of an EV.
Also, in many parts of the world there are "price books" meant to make cars depreciate faster. I got my '15 model year Ford Focus still under warranty for 1/5 of its original price when it had only 70k miles - I can't imagine an EV depreciating any worse, It just can't be worse.
I have 3 cars in my household, I'm pretty much their only user (E150 Corolla 1.6L MMT, Ford Focus MK3 1.6L "Dry"-Powershift, Volvo C30 2.0 "Wet"-Powershift - sadly all of them (expect the Ford) age like milk...) and having an EV isn't that possible because I have an apartment, and I do not like relying on public infrastructure.
It's hard to find a decent gas car, I don't feel like being Toyota's ginny pig with their 3 cylinder DynamicForce engines and expensive and way too complex CVTs, and neither do I want to mess around with any batteries or paying a premium for Mazdas - But getting a KIA comes with a hard stigma even if it's just false...
Probably in that kind of situation a hybrid is going to be the best choice for a lot of people. It's hard to say how far the people behind this will be able to push this rot in the U.S. since a large part of the population is not in favor of it, as evidenced in the closeness of our elections. Could well swing the other way, we'll see. Since like Scotty I'm not a new car buyer the availability of new gasoline models doesn't really affect me. (I'll be pushing up daisies by the time good used ones are not available.)
@dan When Chuck said long distances, he meant in one trip, not annually. It's not unusual for people in the US to cross state lines for work on a daily basis. In Europe, that would be like crossing one or more countries. Everything is just more spread out, and range and charging becomes an issue (for EV, not Hybrid). In Europe where everything is more dense, EV does make more sense. Except when they have to tear up those cobblestone roads to upgrade the power infrastructure 😆
Well, where I live I can't even cross out of the country by car (there's just nowhere to go) - which is 1/5 the size of the state of New York - about the size of Hawaii. Yeah I guess when it comes to extremely road trips, EVs are at a huge disadvantage. But flights to and from mainland Europe are like $20-$35 each way so it's probably better then driving.
Absolutely. Stansted-Prague $8 on Ryanair if you booked early. Eh, @inthrustwetrust? 😆
For me it costs to same to fly to a different city in the same country, as it does to fly to London (another continent)
People here in the U.S. routinely drive hundreds or even thousands of miles on trips without having to think much about it. Heck, with a gas-powered vehicle you can just hop in and go if you're in a position to do so. Back in the 1990s a friend of mine hopped into his 1965 Rambler American (at the time about 30 years old) and drove from the East Coast to the Left Coast, a trip of about 3000 miles, without needing a detailed plan for refueling on the way. (Refueling of course only took a few minutes at each stop.) Can you do that with a decades-old electric car, or even a new one? Will an old electric car even be functional, let alone be capable of a cross-country trip?
a road trip with an electric car would look like this: connecting the dots between charging stations, instead of places where you want to go. And also having a list of backups, in case those charging stations are occupied or broken.
I guess you could always call AAA if you run out of juice in your electric buggy at a dead charging station, and they can bring a jerry can full of electricity out to you. 😆
Yeah, even from what I hear from folks in the UK electric ain't fun. I mean a 30 minute stop to fast charge each 200 miles or so Is probably not such a big deal but it'd get annoying fast.
Also isn't "autopilot" the main feature of Teslas? (that it can drive it self in lane) - Even a $16,700 MSRP Kia Rio S has that nowadays 🤣🤣 (Lane Follow Assist and Smart Cruise Control, and from what I saw on the Niro HEV it works surpassingly well)
Aeroplane ticket prices are one of the biggest mysteries of the earth. I’m often in the situation where it’s just cheaper to buy full priced discount tickets, rather than having to go through the hassle of applying for staff travel. @mmj For me too, it costs about the same for long domestic flights vs short international flights.
Just based on press releases and what is publicly known.
GM seems to have the best plan and platform between the three. I mean, they are transitioning their premere brand, Cadillac, to all electric, sooner than their other brands.
Ford seems to be getting into it too. They have been flirting with electrification for years, in the form of hybrids, and have transitioned their best selling model truck to all electric. I also think they are playing it cautious, as to time their entry just right, rather than too soon.
Chrysler seems behind. While their parent is working on the platform for EV, Chrysler itself doesn’t seem as vocal about electrification. At least how I perceive the information that is out there.
Lastly, GM and other union plants may have the advantage if they get those huge tax rebates approved. I don’t agree with those huge tax rebates as it screws up the market on whether or not an EV can truly stand up on its own.
Only time will tell.
only companies (like Tesla) are setup to build electric vehicles
That's simply not true.
GM has been working on EV's for a while. They have already had a head start in China.
In N.America GM has already been selling the Bolt EV, and they've announced 30 more EV vehicles including a Silverado pickup.
https://www.gm.com/electric-vehicles
Unfortunately, yes. I think they are gearing up for the change and will be able to transition to electric vehicles. US car companies have announced they are shifting future investments to designing and producing EVs.
Auto companies retool every year for new model production. Ford for instance completely retooled their plants for the F150. Since 2015 F150's chassis are now assembled with rivets and glue (for the aluminized bodies) for instance.
Regarding bailouts, we will have to see how they (and the US consumer) can weather the next recession.
If the politics in the US stay the same, I see a continued and sustained push for EVs. The worst part about it, is even if consumers don't buy them in large numbers (or outright reject them like I do) the government is going to continue to legislate them into existence.
I hope I'm wrong, I do not like EVs and the direction where things are going.
do you get a free fire extinguisher with one?
Adapt or die. That's really it in a nutshell.
If electric/hybrid cars do start becoming the trend, the big companies will be forced to make the change.
Too early to say what will happen of course.
I'm curious to see if GM will fix their Bolt batteries which are basically fire emitting time bombs before they make more. hehe
Well Dodge just announced that the supercharged hellcat V8 engine will be no more after 2023.
They are now developing an electric version for 2024. I'm curious to see what it will turn out to be.
https://www.hotcars.com/dodge-hellcat-v8-discontinuing/amp/
Several "tons of money" will have to be spent to make electric vehicles mainstream. The target date of 2035 isn't likely to happen. We were suppose to have colonies on Mars by now and we were suppose to have had an ice age by now. Too many people making ridiculous predictions.
and we were supposed to be 20ft under water. I have my doubts about these predictions too. Politicians are terrible at planning beyond their terms. And often within them!