If you do mostly stop-and-go driving and plan to keep the vehicle no more than 10 years the hybrid would be OK. (You'd need to calculate what the payback period would be in gas savings.) If you do mostly highway driving or want it to last more than 10 years get the gas-only version. These are rough guidelines, not rules set in stone.

To Hybrid or Not To Hybrid

I wrote third using a RAV4 data. But it should transfer over to the NX, because it is the same platform.

I personally like hybrids. At the same time, I don’t think a hybrid is for everyone. It may fit your needs, it may not.

I have a 2004 Toyota Prius, that has 299,999+ miles. It’s been an amazing vehicle.  The battery did need to be changed at 275,000 miles.

Hybrids in general are a more complex system.  There is an Internal Combustion Engine.  There is an Electric Motor.  There is an eCVT which figures out the power it is is getting from the ICE and/or Electric Motor to transfer to the wheels.  There is the cooling systems, systems with an s, one for the ICE, one for the Electric Motor. And of course, there is the biggest concern, the hybrid battery (traction battery).

At the same time, with all the complexity, the vehicle is somewhat simplified.  There is no stand alone starter. There is no stand alone alternator. The Electric Motor acts as both starter and the alternator. On top of all that, when the ICE is on, the energy generated never* gets wasted like when a traditional ICE car is sitting in idle. And on top of all that, the electric motor / eCVT help slow down the car when it regenerates electricity, also saving wear and tear on the actual brakes.

Drivetrain technology aside, the question returns to how much will one be spending on repairs and maintenance on the life of the vehicle, as compared to the ICE.

Here is a spreadsheet that attempts to give a good idea of the break even mileage.  How many miles would one need to drive the car, given the price of the vehicles, the price of gas? (We can even add an expected maintenance cost as well).

This spreadsheet is for the RAV4.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-bVho8e_wwS-9oU_et-SPaqGYyqXH0ZTX7-euJiKRCk/edit?usp=sharing

One tab just takes the averages of highway and city MPG. The other tab, provides 5 different scenarios as a mental exercise.

My general recommendation just guestimating (I haven’t delved too deeply) at the spreadsheet data, generally speaking, to get the best bang for your buck, either with a hybrid or ICE RAV4.

Get the ICE RAV4:

If you plan on owning the car for less than 100,000 miles.

If you plan on driving nearly 100% on the freeway.

If you only drive your car around 5,000 miles per year. (Hybrids don’t like to sit around, they need to be exercised.)

Get the Hybrid RAV4:

If you plan on owning the car for more than 100,000 miles.

If you plan on driving 100% city, 75% city, 50% city, 25% city.

If you drive a ton per year, especially stop and go traffic.

Get either:

If you plan on owning it more than 200,000 miles. (While you will save on gas, it may equal out in terms of changing the battery. Most of the Prius stories I hear seems to be able to get at least ~225,000 out of it.  Some less mileage, most folks more.)

Like Chuck said above, these are just guidelines. There isn’t a hard and fast tule, as we all have different needs and wants with a car. And some cars are better suited for those needs and wants than others.