I bought my '18 Camry for $20,000 3 years ago.  Its got 50,000 miles on it now and its trade in value at the dealership and via car vendors is $21,000-ish.  Thats more than I paid for it.  Good deal for me if i had something cheap to replace it!  

I want to buy a used ES350 from the mid-teens with comparable milage or slightly more (its a Lexus! It won't die).  These are all going for $23,000-$26,000 give or take a grand depending on model year.  Thats inflated by several thousand dollars though right?  I wasn't looking at these cars 3 years ago so I have no idea.

However, given that my car is being over valued then paying more for the ES350 ends up being a wash right?  Which price is going to fall harder in a year from now? 

My trade in value or the used car price?  If they both fall by the same then it doesn't matter when I upgrade my newer camry for a nicer older es350?  Or if the used market tanks hard but my car value tanks harder then i'll get a worse deal later.